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CASPER, Wyo. — Casper and Natrona County residents should prepare for a volatile shift in weather patterns this weekend as the National Weather Service in Riverton warns of potential severe thunderstorms followed by a rapid climb into summer-like heat and heightened fire risks.
A shortwave dropping southeastward from Montana is expected to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region Saturday. Forecasters have placed Natrona County under a marginal risk for severe weather, with the primary window for activity falling between noon and 7 p.m. While coverage remains scattered, the National Weather Service estimates a 1-in-2 chance of precipitation for any given location in the county.
The atmosphere over southern Natrona County shows sufficient instability to support longer-lasting, high-based storms. Meteorologists indicate that any developed cells could produce gusty winds and small hail. Despite the active sky, temperatures Saturday are expected to remain roughly 5 degrees below seasonal norms, with Casper seeing a steady temperature near 57 degrees under mostly cloudy skies.
The unsettled weather is predicted to clear by Saturday night, making way for a significant warming trend that will dominate the coming week. Sunday will offer a reprieve with sunny skies and a high near 73 degrees before a thermal ridge builds over the state.
Conditions will intensify Monday as a dry weather system moves into the area. Forecasters anticipate temperatures will soar 15 to 20 degrees above normal, reaching a high of 86 degrees in Casper. This heat, combined with southwest wind gusts up to 31 mph and relative humidity levels dropping below 15 percent, has led to concerns over elevated to near-critical fire weather.
The heat is expected to peak between Monday and Wednesday. While Tuesday offers a slight cooling to 78 degrees, Wednesday could see Casper approaching the 90-degree mark for the first time this season. The National Weather Service notes that lower elevations in the Big Horn Basin have a 30% to 50% chance of hitting 90 degrees mid-week, while Casper and surrounding areas will likely remain in the upper 80s.
Fire weather concerns will remain a focal point for local officials through Thursday. Another weather system is projected to arrive by the end of next week, though long-range models currently show little consensus on the timing or placement of any potential rainfall. Residents are encouraged to monitor local updates and exercise caution with any outdoor activities that could spark a wildfire during these dry, windy periods.
Detailed Forecast
- Today – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before noon, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between noon and 5 p.m., then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 57. North wind 7 – 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
- Tonight – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 8 p.m. and 9 p.m. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 35. Northeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.
- Sunday – Sunny, with a high near 73. West southwest wind 5 – 9 mph.
- Sunday Night – Mostly clear, with a low around 46. Light and variable wind becoming south southwest 5 – 9 mph after midnight.
- Monday – Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Breezy, with a southwest wind 11 – 21 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.
- Monday Night – Mostly clear, with a low around 48. West wind 8 – 13 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph.
- Tuesday – Sunny, with a high near 78. Calm wind becoming east northeast 5 – 7 mph in the morning.
- Tuesday Night – Mostly clear, with a low around 48.
- Wednesday – Sunny, with a high near 89.
- Wednesday Night – Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57.
- Thursday – Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Breezy.
- Thursday Night – Mostly clear, with a low around 51.
- Friday – Sunny, with a high near 81.
More on the weather is available at the National Weather Service website.
