Mogadishu (WDN) — In a potentially significant shift in Somalia’s security landscape, Ethiopia has reportedly asked the African Union to accelerate the withdrawal and redeployment of some of its troops serving under the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), prompting the AU to reconsider its previously agreed force-redeployment timetable.

The reported request has caught observers by surprise because Ethiopia was not initially expected to significantly reduce its military footprint in Somalia at this stage of the AUSSOM transition.

Under the earlier planning framework, greater attention had been placed on reducing Ugandan forces and completing the withdrawal of the remaining Burundian contingent, while Ethiopian forces were expected to maintain a substantial presence in several strategically important areas.

That calculation now appears to be changing. According to information emerging from diplomatic and security circles, Addis Ababa’s request is linked to mounting security pressures inside Ethiopia, forcing the government to reassess how many troops it can continue to deploy abroad and where those forces are most urgently required.

The first visible indication of the reported shift came on 8 August, when Ethiopian forces formally handed responsibility for one of their military positions in Buurhakaba to Somali security forces.

The handover is being viewed as part of a broader restructuring of Ethiopia’s military deployment in Somalia, with additional positions reportedly under consideration for transfer to Somali forces.

There are also indications that the number of Ethiopian troops stationed in Baidoa, one of the most strategically important cities in Southwest State, could be reduced.

That development is particularly significant given the continuing security threat posed by Al-Shabaab in Bay and surrounding areas.

Why Ethiopia Wants Its Troops Back

Ethiopia has maintained a substantial military presence in Somalia for years, particularly in areas close to its border and in regions where Somali and international forces have been conducting operations against Al-Shabaab. But Addis Ababa is now confronting its own complicated security environment.

Internal security pressures, military commitments and regional tensions are placing new demands on Ethiopia’s armed forces. If those pressures continue to intensify, maintaining a large overseas deployment in Somalia could become increasingly difficult.

The reported request therefore appears to reflect a broader reassessment of Ethiopia’s military priorities rather than simply a routine adjustment to the AUSSOM rotation schedule.

The timing could hardly be more sensitive. AUSSOM is already undergoing a complicated transition aimed at gradually transferring greater responsibility for national security to Somali forces. Any accelerated reduction by one of the mission’s major troop-contributing countries could disrupt that carefully calibrated process.

Ethiopian forces constitute one of the most significant military components supporting Somalia’s security architecture. Their departure from strategically important bases would therefore raise immediate questions about who will take over those positions and whether Somali forces are adequately prepared to assume full responsibility.

The concern is particularly acute around Baidoa and the wider Southwest State, where Al-Shabaab continues to maintain operational capabilities and exploit gaps in state security.

Could Al-Shabaab Exploit the Vacuum?

For Somalia, the greatest danger is not simply the departure of Ethiopian soldiers. It is what happens after they leave.

If Ethiopian forces withdraw from strategically important locations faster than Somali forces can replace them, Al-Shabaab could attempt to exploit the resulting security gaps.

The Somali government may consequently be forced to accelerate the deployment of national forces to positions vacated by Ethiopian troops.

Other AUSSOM contingents could also face pressure to increase their presence in vulnerable areas if the AU wants to prevent a sudden deterioration in security. That would, however, place additional pressure on an already financially and logistically constrained mission.

A Significant Test for Somalia’s Security Transition

The reported Ethiopian request comes at a particularly delicate moment for Somalia. The Federal Government is under increasing pressure to demonstrate that its security forces can progressively assume responsibility for the country’s security as international forces reduce their presence.

For years, Ethiopia’s military has provided a crucial layer of security in parts of Somalia that Somali forces have struggled to secure independently.

A substantial and accelerated Ethiopian redeployment would therefore represent one of the most consequential tests yet of Somalia’s security transition. The immediate questions are now becoming increasingly urgent:

How many Ethiopian troops will actually leave? Which bases will be transferred? When will Somali forces take over? And will other AUSSOM contingents compensate for the reduction?

For now, neither the African Union nor the Somali Federal Government has publicly confirmed the full scale of the reported Ethiopian request.

If the reports are confirmed, however, Ethiopia’s decision could mark a major change in the architecture of AUSSOM—one that comes at precisely the moment Somalia can least afford an unexpected security gap.

The real test will not be Ethiopia’s decision to reduce its deployment. It will be whether Somalia is ready to fill the space Ethiopia leaves behind.

WardheerNews