Johanna Krebs is analyst for climate, industry and security at the Mercator Institute for China Studies. Photo: Merics

Johanna Krebs: I don’t expect the relationship between China and Germany to warm significantly at this point. In my view, trade issues will dominate the agenda, for example regarding China’s export of rare earth elements, as Germany’s industry depends heavily on these imports. 

Do you think climate and energy topics will play an important role?

Rare earth mineral exports of course also concern green technologies. But I don’t expect climate and energy topics to be explicitly placed on the agenda in this context or any other. 

Export controls imposed by Beijing on rare earth minerals, tariffs on electric vehicles imposed by Brussels and other trade disputes have dominated relations between China and Europe lately. Do you think Merz’s trip will help resolve some of these issues? What kind of solution do you expect Germany’s government to aim for?

Germany could claim success if it achieves an outcome that goes beyond the current Busan Agreement reached between Washington and Beijing, which has been extended to the EU – but only until it expires in October. However, I don’t expect Merz’s trip to yield any long-term solutions in this respect.  

The US under president Donald Trump is increasingly isolating itself on the international stage with its retreat from global climate action and its national rollback of domestic climate legislation. Do you think this could lead to a stronger Europe-China axis on international climate action, leaving the US without a say on key questions?

With its exit from the Paris Climate Agreement, the US has chosen to largely stay out of international climate policy.  But this does not necessarily mean that the EU and China will deepen their cooperation, as industrial competition in green technologies is too intense to not affect climate policy. 

Measures such as carbon pricing, in particular the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), will, however, affect emissions in third countries, including China.