By Abdullahi A. Nor
The greatest asset Somalia possesses today is neither its land nor its natural resources. It is the Federal Government painstakingly rebuilt through more than two decades of sacrifice—from the Arta Peace Conference in 2000 to the peaceful transfer of power on 15 May 2022, when the presidency was entrusted to you – Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. That government embodied the hopes of millions of Somalis who believed the country was finally on the path toward a stable, accountable, and democratic state.
Today, however, many believe that promise is slipping away. The institutions painstakingly rebuilt over two decades have gradually been transformed into a family enterprise, with power concentrated within a narrow political circle rather than exercised through strong, independent state institutions.
Among the opposition’s most serious allegations are claims that large areas of public land in Mogadishu have been sold without transparent accounting of the proceeds, while hundreds of thousands of vulnerable residents—estimated by critics at more than 750,000—have been displaced by controversial land policies. Opposition figures also allege that Somali state-owned properties abroad, including embassy compounds in Europe and Africa, have been disposed of without public disclosure of how the proceeds were managed. These allegations remain fiercely thought and continue to fuel political controversy.
Critics also contend that the national army inherited from former President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed (Farmaajo) has been committed to military campaigns that lacked strategic planning, weakening rather than strengthening Somalia’s security capacity.
They contrast the current administration with the peaceful transfer of power in 2022, when President Farmaajo declared: “I hand over to you every inch of state property that was entrusted to me.”To many of the government’s opponents, those words symbolized a commitment to institutional stewardship and continuity that they believe has since eroded.
Perhaps most concerning, they argue, is that Somalia’s hard-earned international standing—gradually restored after years of conflict—has been overshadowed by allegations of corruption, weak governance, political polarization, and an erosion of the rule of law.
Whether these accusations ultimately withstand political or legal scrutiny remains a matter of ongoing national debate. What is undeniable, however, is that they have become central to the criticism confronting the current administration and have deepened concerns about the future of Somalia’s fragile state-building project.
Constitutional Disputes and Political Polarization
Mr. President, your critics argue that you have abandoned the very Constitution under which you were sworn into office, replacing it with amendments they contend were drafted without broad political consensus. They further allege that the electoral commission established under your administration lacks genuine independence and was designed to implement an electoral model developed without meaningful consultation—as though Somalia was governed by executive decree rather than constitutional consensus.
Opposition leaders also argue that, even while internationally mediated negotiations continue between the Federal Government and opposition groups over the Constitution and the country’s next elections, your administration has refused to suspend controversial policies that lack broad political support. In their view, this has undermined the very dialogue intended to resolve Somalia’s constitutional crisis.
Military Force Instead of Political Dialogue?
Critics further accuse your administration of escalating political disagreements into military confrontations. They point to the Federal Government’s military operation in Ras Kamboni, Jubaland, as one example. They also argue that, while internationally facilitated negotiations over Somalia’s electoral future were still underway, Federal forces—reportedly supported by Turkish assistance—were deployed in South West State.
Opposition figures maintain that the subsequent installation of Aden Mohamed Nur (Aden Madoobe) as President of South West State did not reflect the will of the region’s people but was instead intended to produce a future parliamentary bloc aligned with Villa Somalia. According to the same critics, the strategy extends beyond South West State.
They allege that your administration is attempting to shape political outcomes in Galmudug and Hirshabelle by promoting preferred candidates for the presidency of those Federal Member States. They specifically claim that Liban Shuluq is being positioned for the Galmudug presidency and that similar efforts are expected in Hirshabelle, with the broader objective of influencing the composition of Somalia’s next Federal Parliament.
Whether those allegations are justified remains a matter of intense political disagreement. Nevertheless, they illustrate the profound mistrust that continues to obstruct efforts to achieve a broad national consensus on Somalia’s constitutional and electoral future.
Somalia’s Greatest Security Test
As AUSSOM prepares to conclude its mission by December 2026, Somalia is approaching one of the most consequential security transitions in its modern history. Following years of supporting Somali security institutions, approximately 12,500 African Union personnel are expected to withdraw, leaving responsibilities that many observers fear Somali forces may not yet be fully prepared to assume.
Government critics argue that the past four years represented a missed opportunity to prepare for that transition. Instead of focusing on institutional reform, military professionalism, and national cohesion, they contend that the administration became increasingly consumed by political disputes, allegations of corruption, controversial land transactions, clan-based politics, and confrontations with several Federal Member States.
In their view, those policies weakened national unity precisely when it was needed most. hese concerns have also been echoed by former National Security Adviser Hussein Moalim, who recently warned of the dangers Somalia could face following AUSSOM’s withdrawal.
In an interview with journalist Hafid Nur, Hussein Moalim was asked whether Somalia risked experiencing a collapse similar to Afghanistan after international forces departed. His response was stark. “The Somali government should concentrate its defense on Mogadishu and the Shabelle regions and leave the rest of the country to Al-Shabaab. Otherwise, Somalia risks being overrun in the same way Afghanistan was.”
His remarks generated significant debate but also reflected growing anxiety among security analysts over Somalia’s readiness for the post-AUSSOM era.
A Legacy Still Unwritten
Mr. President, your critics believe history will judge your administration by whether it strengthened Somalia’s institutions or weakened them.
They argue that your government has become synonymous with corruption, political division, and constitutional controversy, setting Somalia’s state-building project back by years. They urge you to place the nation’s interests above personal political ambition, abandon your bid for another term, and return to the path of constitutional consensus.
They also contend that many of the experienced advisers who once surrounded you have departed, leaving behind a shrinking circle whose loyalty, they argue, has replaced independent judgment. Whether one agrees with these criticisms or not, one reality is increasingly difficult to ignore.
As AUSSOM prepares to leave, Somalia’s greatest challenge is no longer solely defeating Al-Shabaab. It is whether its political leadership can overcome deep constitutional divisions, restore public trust, and preserve the state that generations of Somalis struggled to rebuild.
The future of Somalia’s statehood may ultimately depend less on the battlefield than on the willingness of its political leaders to choose national consensus over political confrontation.
Abdullahi A. Nor
Email: abdulahinor231@gmail.com
