The International Monetary Fund, IMF, is warning that the safety net that has been keeping global oil prices from spiralling out of control during the ongoing war in the Middle East may soon disappear.

It’s a cautionary declaration that has direct consequences for oil-dependent nations like Jamaica.

Daina Davy tells us more.

In a new analysis, the IMF says the conflict has triggered the largest disruption to the global oil market in decades.

It notes that prices should have soared but instead settled between US$90 and US$100 a barrel far below what many had feared.

The Fund says the war effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, choking off around a fifth of the world’s daily oil supply.

By the end of May, it says more than one billion barrels of crude had failed to reach the market, causing a major shortfall.

For Jamaica, which imports virtually all of the oil, the warning lands at a difficult moment.

Energy Minister, Daryl Vaz, says crude has moved from around seventy US dollars a barrel before the conflict to roughly one-hundred dollars since.

Prime Minister Dr. Andrew Holness puts the rise in energy costs at about 60 per cent since the fighting began in February.

The pressure also feeds through to electricity, where Jamaica already carries some of the highest power costs in the world.

The IMF cautions that reliance on a single chokepoint leaves the global economy heavily exposed, and it urges countries to diversify both their energy sources and their supply routes, including through renewables.

It also advises that any help offered to consumers be targeted at the most vulnerable and kept temporary.

And even if a lasting agreement reopens the strait, the Fund says it could take two to three months before oil flows return in significant volumes.

This means that relief at the pump, and on light bills may not come quickly.