The Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation has warned of a potential increase in Nile water levels and associated flooding following forecasts of rising water levels in Lake Victoria.
The Ministry says communities living along riverbanks and floodplains should begin preparing for possible flooding as increased flows from the Lake Victoria Basin could eventually affect the White Nile system in South Sudan.
According to a new public notice issued by the Ministry, the latest climate outlook from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) indicates an increased likelihood of El Niño conditions, with above-normal rainfall expected over the Lake Victoria Basin and parts of the wider Nile Basin.
The Ministry says increased rainfall could substantially raise inflows into Lake Victoria.
Hydrological simulations and the Nile Basin flow-management Decision Support System have also indicated that Lake Victoria’s water level could rise significantly, potentially exceeding its historical maximum.
The Ministry says this could increase riverine flooding along the Nile, including in vulnerable areas in and around Juba.
Current Nile levels remain below flood-alert threshold
Despite the warning, the Ministry says current measurements do not indicate an immediate flood emergency along the main Nile.
It says hydrological monitoring stations from Nimule to Renk and from Nasir to Bentiu are currently recording decreasing water levels.
The levels also remain below established flood-alert thresholds.
The Ministry is therefore issuing the warning as an advance preparedness measure, rather than announcing that flooding is currently occurring as a result of the anticipated rise.
Undersecretary of the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, Sultan Lam Tungwar Kueigwong, says the early notification is intended to help reduce possible loss of life, damage to infrastructure and disruption of livelihoods.
Warning comes amid recent concerns over rising lake levels
The latest warning follows earlier concerns over high water levels in the Lake Victoria Basin.
In September, South Sudan received notification from Uganda’s Ministry of Water and Environment about anticipated high water levels in Lake Victoria and the possibility of increased downstream flows. South Sudan’s Water Resources Ministry subsequently warned that rising lake levels could increase the risk of flooding along the Nile, including in Juba.
The concern is not new for South Sudan. In May 2024, the Ministry warned of potential flooding after Lake Victoria reached record-high levels, with Uganda releasing excess water downstream at about 2,400 cubic metres per second at the time.
The Ministry maintains a national flood-preparedness programme that monitors changes in Lake Victoria and the wider Nile system and coordinates early warnings with states and humanitarian partners.
Drought and flood risks at the same time
The Ministry says the anticipated flood risk comes as South Sudan is also dealing with severe drought conditions in several areas.
It says reduced rainfall between June and September 2026 has affected water resources, livestock and crops across Eastern Equatoria, Warrap, Upper Nile, parts of Jonglei, Central Equatoria, Unity, Northern and Western Bahr el Ghazal, and Lakes states.
The three administrative areas of Abyei, Pibor and Ruweng have also been affected.
The Ministry says the situation highlights the need for communities and authorities to prepare for both extremes, drought and potential flooding.
Authorities urged to prepare
The Ministry is advising people living on floodplains and along river shorelines to remain alert and take precautionary measures.
It says it will continue monitoring developments in collaboration with Uganda, Nile Basin Technical Advisory Committee counterparts and other relevant institutions.
The Ministry also says it will provide further updates on anticipated outflows and changes in river conditions to support coordinated preparedness and decision-making.
The latest warning does not indicate that the Nile has already reached flood-alert levels in South Sudan. Instead, authorities are urging early preparedness in anticipation of possible increased flows in the coming days.
