lowered its economic growth forecast for Peru this year from 3.4% to 3.2%, while also reducing its expansion outlook for 2027 from 3.2% to 3%.
“We have revised gross domestic product (GDP) growth downward, basically because of El Niño (phenomenon),” BCR Governor Julio Velarde stated on Friday.
During the presentation of the September Inflation Report, Velarde outlined projections for 4.7% growth in non-primary GDP and a 2.3% contraction in primary GDP for 2026.
The official indicated that primary GDP (agriculture, fishing, mining, and hydrocarbons) would grow 1.3% next year.
Meanwhile, non-primary GDP (manufacturing, construction, trade, and services) would expand 3.5%.
“The lower contribution from the primary sector means that the growth projection for 2026 has been revised from 3.4% to 3.2%. For next year, we are seeing something similar, and growth is being revised from 3.2% to 3%,” he explained.
The economist said economic activity indicators have continued to perform well in recent months.
“Economic activity indicators are generally quite positive. Formal payrolls, in nominal terms, are growing at nearly 8%,” the BCR governor noted.
“Meanwhile, imports of capital goods increased by nearly 27% in the second quarter and by more than 20% in July-August,” Velarde indicated.
According to the official, “cement consumption grew 10.2% in July and has been expanding at double-digit rates for several quarters now.”
“Consumer credit is growing at double-digit rates, while business credit has risen to 9%, and electronic payment receipts increased by 17.5% in July and August. All of this still indicates highly dynamic and strong domestic demand,” he added.
The official highlighted that business expectations have remained in optimistic territory since mid-2024, although they have moderated recently.
“Expectations remain highly positive. There was a setback in the survey conducted at the end of August, but they remain in optimistic territory. We believe this is more a reflection of companies’ concerns about El Niño,” Velarde said.
On the other hand, he mentioned that global economic growth projections remain at 3.1% for both 2026 and 2027.
