Real growth in Serbia’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2026 stood at 3.8 per cent year-on-year, the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (RZS) announced on Monday. This figure is higher than the initial flash estimate, which had placed economic growth at 3.6 per cent year-on-year for the second quarter of this year.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg in April had expected second-quarter growth to reach 2.5 per cent (representing a downgrade from the 3 per cent projected in the previous survey). 14 experts participated in the April survey.
Compared with the first quarter, GDP growth stood at 1.5 per cent.
By sector, the most significant real growth in gross value added in the second quarter of 2026, compared with the same period last year, was recorded in wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles, transport and storage, and accommodation and food services (4.4 per cent); professional, scientific, innovative, and technical activities, along with administrative and support service activities (5.8 per cent); and construction (9.1 per cent).
Household final consumption expenditure increased by 4 per cent, expenditure by non-profit institutions serving households by 4.2 per cent, government final consumption expenditure by 2.5 per cent, gross fixed capital formation by 3.3 per cent, exports of goods and services by 4.1 per cent, and imports of goods and services by 5.2 per cent.
National Bank and Ministry of Finance raise growth forecast
In the meantime, based on the flash estimate by the RZS, the National Bank of Serbia upgraded its economic growth forecast to 3.2 per cent for 2026. The service sectors and net taxes made the largest positive contribution to growth, driven by higher private consumption. Growth was further supported by a recovery in manufacturing, particularly owing to higher production in the petroleum and chemical industries, as well as strong performance in sectors linked to the automotive industry. Activity also rose in mining, whilst energy sector output continued to decline due to the implementation of carbon border adjustment regulations and, in part, reduced hydrological capacity.
The Ministry of Finance increased its GDP growth forecast for this year from 3 to 3.3 per cent in the 2026 budget revision, which was adopted by the Serbian Parliament on Monday. According to the rationale accompanying the revised budget, this increase is primarily attributable to a strong agricultural yield in the first half of the year.
Economic growth this year will be driven entirely by domestic demand, given the 4.4 per cent rise in personal household consumption. On the other hand, compared with the plan set out in the budget drafted late last year, gross fixed capital formation will fall short of expectations, with growth revised down from 6.9 per cent to 4.6 per cent.
The Ministry of Finance also expects investment activity to accelerate in the second half of the year compared with the first, mainly driven by the momentum of public investments linked to preparations for hosting Expo 2027, the execution of transport and energy infrastructure projects, and the rollout of newly initiated private investment cycles.
(Bloomberg Adria, 01.09.2026)
https://rs.bloombergadria.com/ekonomija/srbija/112113/rast-bdp-a-u-drugom-kvartalu-neocekivanih-38-odsto/news
