The concerning information announced today by Education Minister Vesna Janevska, is much more than statistics for the beginning of the new school year. This year, around 4,900 fewer first-graders were enrolled than in 2025, said Janevska.

This is a clear indicator that demographic changes in Macedonia are already directly affecting the education system. Although the number of enrolled students is not yet final, as enrollment continues, the Minister stated that even in the most optimistic scenario, the difference will be at least 3,000 students. Her assessment that the same trend is expected next year as well is also worrying.

This means that this is not a one-time decrease, but a process that is already becoming visible in schools. For years, statistical reports have warned of a decline in the birth rate and the emigration of young people. But the number of first-graders today is the first concrete indicator of how these processes are affecting institutions. We are no longer just talking about the fact that young people have escaped us, we are now already summing up the consequences of their departure.

A smaller number of first-graders today means that in a few years there will be fewer students in subject classes, then fewer high school students, and later a smaller number of high school graduates, students and young people entering the labor market. Therefore, such data have long been not only educational statistics, but also an indicator of future demographic and economic developments in the country.

Internal migration is also striking. On the one hand, the Education Ministry announced that single-shift teaching has already been introduced in more than 200 schools, such as in Kavadarci, Prilep, Bitola, Stip and Gjorce Petrov. On the other hand, Skopje continues to have a major biggest challenge due to a lack of room in its schools and the need to expand schools. This shows that demographic developments are not equal everywhere. Smaller cities are dying out. Part of the interior are facing a reduced number of students, and schools in the capital are looking for extra places. Skopje continues to attract population from other municipalities.

The decline in the number of first-year students is part of a broader demographic process that will have consequences not only for the education system, but also for the economy, the labor market and the development of the country in the coming years. The smaller the generations entering schools, the smaller the number of future workers, taxpayers and carriers of economic development will be. Macedonia will still feel the consequences of the purchased one-way plane tickets.

The Minister’s statement opens a much broader question than the organization of the new school year – whether Macedonia is prepared for the consequences of demographic changes that are no longer seen only in statistical reports, but also in school desks.

Biljana Babic