As Republicans continue redrawing districts across the country in a desperate bid to hang on to the U.S. House, they love to hold New England up as proof that they’re only doing what Democrats have already done.
Stephen Miller, the president’s deputy chief of staff, noted this month that “even though nearly half of New England is conservative/Republican, Democrats have gerrymandered the GOP to zero house seats in the entire region.”
Miller is not completely wrong. New England has 21 House districts and, remarkably, the GOP hasn’t won any of them since 2016. But that record doesn’t have anything to do with gerrymandering.
Republicans are not losing in New England because cunning Democrats drew district lines to keep them from winning. They’re losing because their candidates are often weak and the party’s national agenda holds little appeal to middle-of-the-road voters in a region that values independence more than most.
In Maine, the most closely divided of the six states in New England, there are two congressional districts. One of them is dominated by Democrats. The other leans so heavily Republican that President Donald Trump won it three straight times.
Although Maine’s 2nd District favors the GOP, the president’s party has failed to capture the seat since Democratic Rep. Jared Golden beat two-term Republican Bruce Poliquin in 2018. This year, with Golden stepping down, former Gov. Paul LePage hopes to bring the district back to the Republicans.
New Hampshire, like Maine, has two districts. Republican Frank Guinta held one of them for a single term after winning in 2014. Since then, like next door in Maine, Republicans have come up short. New Hampshire’s districts gerrymandered into being by Democrats? No, they were signed into law by a Republican governor, Chris Sununu. Republicans could win either of them in a good year. And they haven’t.
Vermont only has one district. Since Rep. Peter Smith lost in 1990, it’s never again been in GOP hands.
The other small New England state, Rhode Island, hasn’t had a GOP House member in either of its districts since Ronald Machtley gave up his seat in 1994 to run for governor. Again, history shows us that’s not because of gerrymandering. It’s because the state leans heavily Democratic.
In Connecticut, once a GOP hotbed, Republican Reps. Nancy Johnson and Rob Simmons remained in Congress until 2006, when both of them lost. Since they’d won the same districts in 2002 and 2004, it’s unfair to say they were gerrymandered out of office. Whether Stephen Miller is willing to accept it or not, Republicans still have a fair shot in the state’s 2nd District.
With nine House districts, Massachusetts ought to offer the GOP an opportunity, but it’s been a bleak place for Republicans since Rep. Peter Torkildsen lost his seat in a 1996 race.
Thirty years of failure on this scale may indeed make it seem like Democrats drew districts to gain the upper hand, especially in a state that invented gerrymandering. The trouble with that hunch is that it would be exceedingly difficult to draw any sort of vaguely coherent GOP-friendly district in the state. And, again, a Republican governor — Charlie Baker — there signed off on the existing district lines.
If Republicans want to win in New England, here’s what they could do: Start by finding candidates and adopting policies that appeal to the voters here — not to racists, nativists and other kooks.
