SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (KELO) — Weather is all about patterns, and one pattern that has been rather noticeable as of late has been the last of severe winter conditions across KELOLAND.

Wildfire smoke blankets South Dakota skies

The last two winters in KELOLAND, by and large, have been easier to navigate than in previous years. From below-average snow totals to overall above-average temperatures, it seems like Mother Nature has dealt us a good hand lately. Incidentally, the severe weather seasons leading up to those last two winters have also been, overall, more tolerable.

KELOLAND Meteorologist, Adam Rutt, dives into the question: Do active severe weather seasons lead to an active winter?

The data will be looking at the last ten severe weather seasons and their ensuing winter seasons, observing snow totals from July 1st to June 30th, and looking at total storm reports.

The last two winters have had well below average snow. That coincides with below-average storm reports across South Dakota for both severe weather seasons. 2022 was a very active severe weather season with two derechos in six weeks, with winter being well above average snowfall across the board for that season. Looking at the 2021 severe weather season and that ensuing winter, were both below average.

Things start to get interesting as we reach 2020, which was a rather active severe weather season, but snow totals were below average. 2017 through 2019 were below-average severe weather seasons that featured above-average snow overall, with the opposite on both accounts being observed for 2016 and 2015.

There are more variables that need to be considered before confirming that there’s a pattern…such as whether we had an El Niño or La Niña winter in place, among other crucial factors.