Raleigh, NC (WNCN) – The Tropical Atlantic has hit the snooze button, right in the middle of peak hurricane season. That’s unusual, and it’s unlikely to last as we move deeper into what is normally the most active stretch of the year. Remember, the season is still less than halfway over, and conditions can change quickly.

Right now, a tropical wave has rolled off the coast of Africa. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives it a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression within the next 7 days. The last named system, Tropical Storm Fernand, dissipated back on August 28th.

This wave is still more than 3,000 miles from the North Carolina coast and will need time to organize. Current guidance suggests development is most likely between September 16th and 19th. While many models agree on eventual formation, they also show a wide range of possible tracks once the system takes shape.

The most likely outcome is a quick pull northward, reducing the chance of a farther-west track. Still, given the wave’s distance and the fact that it remains undeveloped, it’s too early to pin down a final path. For now, the best approach is to monitor updates while keeping in mind that this system is still a long way out.