All the buzz in Las Vegas is about Fernando Mendoza making his first NFL start. When it comes to betting, though, you have to go with your head and not your heart. At least that’s what they say.
Here’s what some of our VSiN experts think about Sunday’s Seahawks-Raiders game:
Steve Makinen
Two rookie quarterbacks are making their first starts this week in difficult situations, as both host NFC West powers with defenses playing very well. Seattle has held four opponents to 10 points or fewer, including two of its past three.
Regular readers know I don’t automatically fade rookie quarterbacks like Fernando Mendoza, but two trends suggest doing so this week:
Since 2008, rookie quarterbacks have struggled most in Weeks 10-15, going 110-173 straight up and 122-150-11 against the spread (44.8 percent).
Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more are just 27-137 straight up and 67-93-4 against the spread (41.9 percent).
Think of this from a foundational standpoint. By Weeks 10-15, teams’ styles of play are well known. There won’t be many surprises from Mendoza in his first start.
The Raiders’ blowout loss last week doesn’t help, either. Teams coming off losses of 20 or more points are just 18-54-1 straight up and 31-41-1 against the spread (43.1 percent) as nonconference underdogs since 2019.
I hate to use the term “must-win” for Seattle, but this game is important with a treacherous post-bye schedule looming. Since 2009, road or neutral-site favorites facing nonconference opponents before their bye week are 34-8-1 straight up and 29-13-1 against the spread (69 percent, plus-14.7 units, 35 percent ROI).
Seattle is also 13-2 straight up and 11-4 against the spread in pre-bye games since 2011, with six consecutive straight-up wins and seven consecutive against-the-spread wins in pre-bye nonconference games.
With Las Vegas ranking last in rushing defense, Drew Lock and the Seahawks should have a balanced attack.
Best bet: Seattle (-6.5) to win by a touchdown or more.
Wes Reynolds
The Fernando Mendoza (Can you hear the drums, Fernando?) era officially begins Sunday in Las Vegas as the Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 overall pick becomes QB1 for the Silver and Black.
Mendoza’s first assignment is a Seattle defense ranked No. 2 in success rate and No. 4 in EPA. The Seahawks also lead the league in yards allowed per pass attempt (5.48) and rank second in tackles for loss.
On the other side, Drew Lock is filling in for injured Sam Darnold while dealing with an oblique injury himself. Lock clearly favored it last week, as Seattle scored just 17 points and managed fewer than 300 yards against a poor Cardinals defense.
The Raiders present another favorable matchup, but can Seattle take advantage? Lock isn’t 100 percent, and the Seahawks cannot run the ball. Even with Zach Charbonnet returning last week, Seattle averaged just 3.6 yards per carry.
Furthermore, the Seahawks are missing the entire left side of their offensive line, with Charles Cross and Quenton Nelson both out.
Raiders coach Klint Kubiak also knows Seattle’s defense well, having faced it daily in practice as the Seahawks’ offensive coordinator last season. Kubiak may implement some new wrinkles with Mendoza, including more RPOs that he couldn’t run with Kirk Cousins.
Seattle has its bye week next, and injuries are starting to take their toll. Even against a rookie quarterback making his first start, this number is too high for the Seahawks to lay on the road.
Best bet: Raiders +7 (-120)
Zachary Cohen
Doesn’t it feel like we’re getting a major discount on Brock Bowers player props this week?
His receiving-yards total is down to 57.5 at one prominent sportsbook, even though the talented tight end has recorded at least 70 yards in all seven games he has played this season. Bowers is averaging 94.0 receiving yards per game.
It’s also +210 for Bowers to score a touchdown despite finding the end zone in five of his seven games, including one two-touchdown performance.
Of course, Kirk Cousins was traded to Minnesota at the deadline, so Bowers will be working with a new quarterback. However, this isn’t Joe Fagnano we’re talking about. Bowers will be catching passes from Fernando Mendoza, the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Mendoza could be nervous and unsettled in his first start, and perhaps he’ll struggle against an excellent Seattle defense. But if he’s uncomfortable in the pocket, that should give him even more reason to look toward Bowers, the ultimate security blanket.
I’ll also note that our OptaAI player prop projections have Bowers finishing with 63.99 receiving yards, comfortably above the posted total.
With that in mind, I’m expecting Bowers to have a big game, sprinkling in some alternate totals and taking the anytime-touchdown prop.
Bets:
Bowers over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-115, 1.5 units)
Bowers alternate over 79.5 Receiving Yards (+214, 0.5 units)
Bowers alternate over 99.5 Receiving Yards (+478, 0.1 units)
Bowers anytime touchdown (+210, 0.5 units)
