On Saturday, the Michigan Wolverines host the Penn State Nittany Lions at 3:30 p.m. ET. Both teams are winless in the Big Ten and are desperate for their first conference victory.

Michigan (3-2) has lost two close games in a row and is 0-2 in the conference. Penn State (3-3) won its first three games outside the Big Ten and then dropped three in a row to conference opponents.

The Wolverines have won three consecutive meetings against the Nittany Lions, with the last series victory in 2023. Michigan has won four of its last five home games vs. Penn State, most recently in 2022. Let’s analyze the Kalshi odds for Michigan vs. Penn State.

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Michigan vs. Penn State markets on Kalshi

Michigan vs. Penn State moneylines

The Wolverines should be able to lean on their defense to spur the victory, as the unit ranks third in the nation in yards per game allowed (241.4).

Michigan has allowed no more than 19 points in a game this season, and the Nittany Lions registered 56 points during their three-game losing streak.

When Michigan has the ball, the ground game should be a priority. Penn State allowed 220.7 rushing yards per game in its last two matchups.

Michigan running back Jordan Marshall is averaging 4.4 yards per carry and has three rushing touchdowns. He might surpass 60+ rushing yards for the first time this season.

The Nittany Lions’ run defense will also have to account for Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood, who logged a season-high 87 rushing yards against Oklahoma.

Underwood rushed for two TDs in the first two games of the season.

Michigan vs. Penn State point spread

While Michigan should have the edge on both sides of the ball, recent trends suggest this could be a close game. Four of the Wolverines’ five games have been decided in the final minute.

Michigan is wading through one of college football’s toughest schedules. Their opponents have a .620 winning percentage.

This could be one of the Wolverines’ less formidable draws, so they may be able to put this game away earlier.

Michigan vs. Penn State total points

This is not an easy number to reach, as Michigan and its opponents have failed to crack 40 points in four of the first five games.

The Wolverines will dictate the matchup with defense. They have failed to score 20 points four times.

Penn State did not score more than 23 points in each of its last three losses. In their three wins, the Nittany Lions allowed 22 points and no more than 13 points in any game.

In the past two games against conference opponents, though, Penn State allowed 65 points.

Michigan vs. Penn State team totals

Michigan has a favorable matchup against the Penn State defense. The Wolverines can also add points on defense. Michigan has already scored two TDs off interceptions.

Kicker Trey Butkowski leads the team with 25 points and has made all four field goal attempts. The draw against the Penn State rushing defense is a good one for a Michigan team that has averaged 2.4 rushing TDs per game over its last 64 matchups.

Penn State QB Rocco Becht started the season well, with 10 TD passes in his first three games and two 70-yard outings.

But in the team’s last three losses, he passed for two TDs and was intercepted three times by conference opponents.

Michigan allows 15.8 points per game. The Wolverines’ defensive line was rated No. 1 in the nation by Pro Football Focus. The run defense allows less than 95 yards per game.

How Kalshi works for Michigan vs. Penn State

The implied probabilities and event contract prices are generated by the trading trends of the Kalshi user base. Kalshi does not limit users to fixed odds, and there is no wagering against the house.

Kalshi is federally regulated by the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Kalshi is a safe and legal trading platform.

Trading on Kalshi requires users to buy ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ contracts that are tied to sporting outcomes. All contracts cost $0.01 to $0.99. If a contract is graded as a winner, it pays out $1. You can determine the profit by subtracting the original contract price from the $1 payout.

If you take Michigan at $0.50 to cover the 6.5-point spread and it wins by at least seven points, contracts on that outcome will pay out $1 each with a $0.50 profit.

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