The Bottom Line
Thursday will be a summer-ish weather day, with a few challenges that could interrupt outdoor plans. An initial round of showers and thunderstorms will last from early morning through around lunchtime — the farther north in New Jersey you are, the wetter you will be during this time period. The afternoon trends drier and sunnier, although it will be quite hot and humid with high temperatures near the 90-degree mark. It will be windy too, with possible wind gusts approaching 40 mph. And there is a chance, although not a guarantee, that one or two pop-up thunderstorm cells get going in the afternoon, producing gusty winds and heavy rain. Drier, more comfortable air will return Thursday night, setting up a much quieter day Friday. There will be some early showers to the south, then sunshine and 80-degree temperatures win the day. And the Father’s Day weekend looks fantastic, with bright skies, dry weather, low humidity, and seasonably warm temperatures. New Jersey’s next chance of rain should hold off until Monday.
Weather Hazards
Thursday is definitely an “eyes on the sky” and a “weather aware” kind of day. While this does not look like a widespread dangerous weather event, several ingredients could interrupt your outdoor plans.
It will be hot and very humid. High temperatures will reach about 90 degrees, with a heat index in the mid 90s. Sweaty and uncomfortable, although just shy of the “dangerous heat” category.
It will become increasingly windy through Thursday afternoon too, with top gusts around 30 to 40 mph.
And then there is the thunderstorm threat. One batch of marginal scattered thunderstorms will sweep through New Jersey in the morning. And then storms are conditional in the afternoon. If they pop up in the afternoon — and that is an if — they will almost certainly produce strong winds and local downpours, as they feed off our hot and humid atmosphere.
Climatological Context
June 18 is the 169th day of 2026.
Normal high temperatures range from 82 to 83 degrees, while normal low temperatures range from 62 to 65 degrees.
June is, on average, New Jersey’s third warmest and third wettest month of the year.
One more important milestone coming : The Summer Solstice arrives Sunday at 4:24 a.m., marking the official start of summer. (I want to mention it now, because this is my last weather blog article before then.)
Thursday
It’s humid again. Temperatures barely dipped into the 60s overnight. And skies are murky and unsettled to start the day.
A cluster of showers and thunderstorms will be working through the state from Thursday morning through midday, until about Noon or 1 p.m. This is not an all-day soaker though. Northern and western New Jersey will be the wettest corners of the state, while farther south rainfall will be more limited.
Thursday afternoon, breaks of sun will cook thermometers to around 90 degrees. It will become increasingly windy too, with southwest gusts climbing as high as 40 mph.
After lunchtime, thunderstorm chances drop considerably. They do not disappear entirely though. One or two isolated storms could still bubble up through sunset, fueled by the hot and humid atmosphere. Those storms would be capable of producing brief heavy downpours and gusty winds.
The combination of that wind and a heavy swell presents a high risk of dangerous rip currents and rough surf at the Jersey Shore Thursday. Make sure you heed all posted flags, signs, and lifeguard instructions.
Our weather will start to settle down Thursday night, as we tap into some drier air. Expect mostly cloudy skies and breezy conditions. Lows will bottom out in the mid 60s or so.
Friday
One more batch of showers will clip southern and coastal New Jersey only Friday morning. (One model, the NAM, shows this rain lingering even longer — but I am not buying this wetter solution.)
Then skies will brighten considerably, as the sun comes out. High temperatures will slide backward to around 80 degrees on Friday.
Of course, the biggest change for Friday will be how the air feels. Humidity levels tumble, making Friday dramatically more comfortable. A refreshing breeze will make for an excellent finish to the workweek.
Conditions along Jersey Shore beaches should improve too, as surf and rip current concerns begin to ease.
Saturday
Saturday looks to deliver just about everything you could want from the last full day of spring.
Expect mostly sunny skies, a fresh breeze, comfortable humidity, and afternoon temperatures in the lower 80s.
Sunday & Beyond
The forecast for Father’s Day Sunday is shaping up nicely too.
Skies will progress from sun to clouds, but the daytime hours stay completely dry. It will be seasonably warm, with highs between 80 and 85 degrees.
New Jersey’s next batch of rain is expected to arrive very late Sunday night into Monday. Whether that is a healthy multi-inch soaking or just a quick splash of rain, we shall see.
Next week looks like typical summer weather, as we alternate between stretches of pleasant, warm weather and occasional bursts of unsettled wet conditions. Overall, not a bad place to be heading into the final third of June.
NJ WEATHER CENTER: Check the 5 Day Forecast
Significant or historical events in New Jersey for June (in chronological order)
Here are some of the historical or significant events that impacted New Jersey or happened in the Garden State during the month of June. Is there an event missing? Let us know with an email to dan.alexander@townsquaremedia.com.
Gallery Credit: Dan Alexander
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.
16 ways the weather can impact your Jersey Shore beach day
Gallery Credit: Dan Zarrow
