We had six matchups this week between teams ranked in the first batch of College Football Playoff rankings. The slate gave us valuable insight into the true quality of nearly half of this week’s top 25.
Here’s what we learned from this week.
My AP Top 25 poll after Week 10
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Georgia, 2. Utah, 3. Notre Dame, 4. Alabama, 5. Miami, 6. Texas, 7. Tennessee, 8. UCLA, 9. Indiana, 10. Texas Tech, 11. BYU, 12. Wake Forest, 13. Houston, 14. South Carolina, 15. Ole Miss, 16. Kentucky, 17. LSU, 18. Arizona, 19. Oregon, 20. Iowa, 21. Southern Cal, 22. Boise State, 23. Louisville, 24. Missouri, 25. Ohio State
Just missed: SMU, Oklahoma State, Duke and Wisconsin
Newcomers: Oregon and Louisville
Dropped from last week: Florida and Northwestern
How BYU-Utah and Notre Dame-Miami affected my poll
BYU had every chance to win the Holy War. Quarterback Bear Bachmeier threw four interceptions, yet the Cougars lost by only eight on the road to the No. 2 team in my poll. Credit to Utah for the win, but one could argue BYU would have won if Bachmeier had just protected the football.
For those reasons, neither team moved in my poll this week. BYU proved that it’s still at least a top-15 team, showing it on the field against Utah before getting a resume boost later in the day when Notre Dame beat Miami. And Utah further cemented its place at No. 2 by earning another top-15 win and staying undefeated.
BYU’s path to the College Football Playoff may be nonexistent now, but Saturday still proved that the Cougars are still a good team.
Notre Dame’s win over Miami basically guarantees the Irish a spot in the College Football Playoff, but the win alone wasn’t enough for me to place Notre Dame into the top-2 of my poll. The Irish had home-field advantage (the temperature around kickoff was 40 degrees), and Miami was without star wide receiver Malachi Toney.
Still, you have to respect Notre Dame’s win. Beating a legitimate top-5 team was exactly what coach Marcus Freeman’s team needed after the BYU loss, which shook a lot of people’s confidence in his team’s quality. That skepticism only grew as BYU lost to UCF and then barely beat Arizona State last week.
With Miami, I resisted the urge to place the Hurricanes at No. 1 because of their remarkably weak schedule up until now. They may have lost on Saturday, but the performance (especially in the second half) proved that they’re a top-5 team. Beating Wake Forest by two scores back in September also helps a resume that lacks quality wins elsewhere.
Breaking down a loaded SEC slate
LSU’s loss to Alabama proved that the Tigers just aren’t very good against good teams. They’re 0-3 against ranked opponents, which really hurts considering how many teams, especially in the SEC, own top-25 wins. LSU has destroyed weaker teams this season and is an analytical darling, but at some point you need to prove it on the field against quality competition, and the Tigers continue to fail in this regard.
On the flip side, Saturday was a crucial result for Alabama. Not only are the Crimson Tide a near lock for the playoff, but they also have a case for No. 1 in the polls. They’ve only lost to top-10 teams (Tennessee on the road and No. 1 Georgia), and they’ve beaten three top-20 foes (two on the road): Kentucky, South Carolina, and now LSU.
Notre Dame’s win over Miami and its overall quality on both sides of the ball did just enough to edge the Irish over Alabama in my rankings, but I wonder if I’ll come to regret that choice in a month or two.
I’ve been more down on Kentucky than the consensus, a fact that many Wildcats fans aren’t afraid to tell me on the internet. But, and I hate to tell anyone “I told you so,” there were plenty of signs pointing to Saturday’s trip to Tennessee being a tough result for coach Will Stein’s team.
Kentucky’s success has come on a razor-thin edge. A pair of two-point conversions had been the difference between one loss and three for the Wildcats before this week, and combined with a relatively unconvincing win over Oklahoma and a slightly weaker SEC slate that included Vanderbilt and Texas A&M, Kentucky’s actual quality had told a different story than what its actual record had been before Saturday.
That said, I didn’t shift the Wildcats down in my poll at all this week (despite the 34-6 loss) for two reasons. Tennessee is really good, especially at home, and I couldn’t place a team like Arizona or Oregon over Kentucky when Kentucky has more top-20 wins (two) than Arizona and Oregon put together (zero). Arizona hasn’t beaten a ranked team, and Oregon’s ranked wins also include a loss to Illinois and a near defeat to Nebraska, which just fired offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen.
There’s not much I can add to Georgia-Ole Miss. The Bulldogs proved everything they needed to show on the scoreboard in their 42-7 shellacking of the Rebels in Oxford. Georgia now has a top-5 win (Alabama), a dominant top-20 win (Ole Miss), and has looked almost flawless when it comes to the eye test, with the exception of one game: the bizarre loss to Auburn, a team that needed a field goal in the final minute to beat Arkansas this week.
Ole Miss’ embarrassing defeat dropped the Rebels from No. 5 to No. 15 in my poll. Many will argue that the Rebels should be even lower, but they still beat LSU and Missouri and haven’t relied on thin margins (or luck) to earn their quality wins this season. The depth of the SEC this season has been monstrous, so I’m more willing than ever to put three-loss SEC teams in the teens of my rankings at this point in the year.
Other notes
Ohio State’s loss to Oregon took the Buckeyes out of the CFP race and nearly out of my poll too. They’re suddenly struggling on defense, and the offense just hasn’t been able to function at the same level without quarterback Julian Sayin.
It’s hard to credit the Buckeyes for beating Iowa and Indiana because Sayin was healthy for those October games. What they are now is likely much closer to the team we’ve seen the last couple of weeks, falling to USC and Oregon.
Louisville found a way back into my rankings this week after dominating Georgia Tech on Saturday. The win itself didn’t help the Cardinals much, but their overall resume is top-25 worthy. Their three losses came by a combined nine points (two at the hands of top-20 teams), and they beat SMU, the last team out of my poll this week.
