But in the All of Mpls poll, Frey maintained a double-digit lead throughout the simulation, while Fateh struggled to increase his vote share, as Davis and Turner’s votes redistributed relatively evenly between Fateh and Frey in later rounds of voting re-tabulation.

The phone and text survey of 600 likely voters was conducted Aug. 8-14 by Impact Research, formerly ALG Polling, which correctly predicted Frey’s vote share within one percentage point in the 2021 election.

While it may seem like a sleepy election compared to 2021 — the year after George Floyd’s police killing sparked several ballot measures and a heated debate on policing — so far early voting is on pace to beat that turnout.

The Frey campaign believes a high turnout is good for Frey overall, although early voting has been highest in Ward 6, which is south and east of downtown, including the Cedar Riverside neighborhood, home to a large East African immigrant community that the Fateh campaign has been pushing hard to vote early.

Frey has money on his side: His campaign finance report that will be released Monday will show he’s raised over $900,000 since January, with over $200,000 in cash on hand. The Fateh campaign said it will report $510,00 raised since January, with $115,000 in cash on hand.

Fateh’s campaign manager Akhilesh Menawat said they’ve knocked on 100,000 doors and pushed people to vote early. He said Frey’s campaign has “made-up polling numbers.”