Week 8 of the NFL season wraps up on Monday night with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Washington Commanders at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. With second-year quarterback Jayden Daniels sidelined by injury, veteran Marcus Mariota will make his third start of the year for Washington, giving Kliff Kingsbury’s offense an experienced hand under center.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET, with Kansas City entering as an 11.5-point favorite and Dimers’ model giving the Chiefs an 84% chance to win after 10,000 simulations. Patrick Mahomes is projected for 273 passing yards as Kansas City looks to extend its AFC West lead, while Mariota is expected to rely on Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel to move the chains. Dimers’ data suggests a 29-18 Chiefs victory, but identifies the Commanders moneyline (+550) as a high-value underdog play based on model probabilities. With Washington fighting to stay in the NFC playoff hunt, all eyes will be on Mariota as he looks to seize his opportunity on Monday Night Football.

Commanders vs. Chiefs betting preview

Explore the interactive widget below to see the latest spread, total, and moneyline odds and probabilities for the Commanders-Chiefs game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

This prediction and best bet for Monday’s NFL matchup between the Commanders and Chiefs is from Dimers.com, a reliable source for sports betting predictions.

Check out all the important details on today’s game, as well as the best odds sourced from the top sportsbooks in the country.

Game details

Key information on the Commanders vs. Chiefs matchup, including where the game is and what time it kicks off.

• Teams: Washington Commanders vs. Kansas City Chiefs
• Date: Monday, October 27, 2025
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
• NFL standings: Current NFL division standings
• NFL injuries: Check the latest updates to the official NFL injury report

Odds

The latest and best odds for the NFL battle between the Commanders and Chiefs.

• Spread: Commanders +11.5 (-105), Chiefs -11.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: Commanders +550, Chiefs -750
• Total: Over/Under 47.5 (-112/-105)

The odds and lines featured in this article are the best available from selected sports betting sites at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Expert prediction: Commanders vs. Chiefs

Using cutting-edge data analysis and computer power, the experts at Dimers have executed 10,000 simulations of Monday’s Commanders vs. Chiefs matchup.

According to Dimers’ famous predictive analytics model, the Chiefs are more likely to beat the Commanders at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. This prediction is based on the model giving the Chiefs an 84% chance of winning the game.

Furthermore, Dimers predicts that the bookmakers have gotten it right and the Commanders and Chiefs each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 47.5-point over/under is also considered an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

These predictions and probabilities are correct at the time of publication but are subject to potential changes.

Commanders vs. Chiefs best bet

Our top pick for the Commanders vs. Chiefs Week 8 NFL game is to bet on the Commanders moneyline (+550).

This expert betting advice is based on detailed modeling and valuable betting intelligence, designed to deliver you the best possible plays.

While the Chiefs are more likely to win the game, according to Dimers, taking the Commanders moneyline is the best option due to the edge identified when comparing Dimers’ data-driven probabilities to the sportsbooks’ odds.

Score prediction for Commanders vs. Chiefs

Dimers’ projected final score for the Washington vs. Kansas City game on Monday has the Chiefs winning 29-18.

This expert prediction is based on each team’s average score following 10,000 game simulations, offering a glimpse into the potential outcome.

NFL player props are a common way to wager on Monday’s game without necessarily betting on its outcome.

This article features the most likely first and anytime touchdown scorers for the Commanders and Chiefs, as well as projected player stats.

Washington Commanders

First touchdown scorer predictions

• Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 7.0% probability
• Deebo Samuel: 5.3% probability
• Terry McLaurin: 5.1% probability

Anytime touchdown predictions

• Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 36.2% probability
• Deebo Samuel: 29.1% probability
• Terry McLaurin: 27.9% probability

Projected box score leaders

• QB passing yards: Marcus Mariota, 207 yards
• Receiving yards: Terry McLaurin, 51 yards
• Rushing yards: Jacory Croskey-Merritt, 52 yards

Kansas City Chiefs

First touchdown scorer predictions

• Rashee Rice: 10.3% probability
• Travis Kelce: 8.7% probability
• Xavier Worthy: 7.2% probability

Anytime touchdown predictions

• Rashee Rice: 44.7% probability
• Travis Kelce: 39.4% probability
• Xavier Worthy: 33.8% probability

Projected box score leaders

• QB passing yards: Patrick Mahomes, 273 yards
• Receiving yards: Rashee Rice, 71 yards
• Rushing yards: Isiah Pacheco, 50 yards

NFL Week 8: Commanders vs. Chiefs

Get ready for Monday’s matchup between the Commanders and Chiefs in Week 8 of the NFL season at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, which is scheduled to start at 8:15 p.m. ET. We emphasize that all of the NFL best bets and NFL predictions in this preview are derived from 10,000 data-driven simulations of the Commanders vs. Chiefs matchup, and they are correct at the time of publishing. They are intended to help you make more informed choices when placing bets at online sportsbooks.

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