The powerful coastal storm we have been tracking all week long has settled on an off-shore track. That means while parts of North Carolina will get a foot of snow this weekend, most of New Jersey will not even see a single flake. Even the coast, which could see some snow showers from Saturday night into Sunday morning, will likely only pick up a fresh coating at the most. Having said that, there will still be some noticeable statewide impacts here from clouds to wind to high surf.

Final forecast for this weekend’s winter storm, as of Saturday morning. (Dan Zarrow, Townsquare Media)Final forecast for this weekend’s winter storm, as of Saturday morning. (Dan Zarrow, Townsquare Media)

Snow

On the one hand, I feel bad that I ever put a snow forecast as high as 2″ out for this thing. On the other hand, I am proud to have fought against the hype that some media outlets were promoting. Bomb cyclone! Epic nor’easter! Massive blizzard! Puh-lease.

Earlier this week, I laid out three track scenarios for this storm system: A complete miss, a direct hit, and a glancing blow. And this is pretty much a complete miss, although only barely so. Saturday morning’s model guidance shows a few snow showers may clip the southern and eastern edges of New Jersey from Saturday evening through Sunday morning. But not a single model is showing any substantial accumulation over New Jersey anymore. It would take a substantial wiggle (i.e. a catastrophic error in our computer modeling) for New Jersey to see more than a coating from this thing. (And even that is pushing it.)

It will be nice to have a break from the onslaught of snow and ice, after three winter storms in the last two weekends.

Wind

However, let’s not sleep on the cold wind that we will feel on the western edge of the storm. Blowing out of the north, gusting up to 30 or 40 mph, peaking around midday Sunday, it is really going to howl.

That wind will have several impacts on our weekend. First of all, any time wind gusts approach 40 mph, we have to think about the potential for sporadic power outages. That is never a fun prospect. And can become an uncomfortable or even dangerous situation given our frigid temperatures right now.

Another standard problem in wind is driving difficulties, especially in high-profile vehicles like trucks and vans. Since the wind will be blowing from the north, this will especially be a problem on east-west roadways.

Sunday’s wind will pose a couple special problems because of the ridiculously cold air that has gripped New Jersey for the past week and a half. Blustery is an understatement here. High temperatures are expected to only reach the lower to mid 20s. So that wind is going to create one heck of a wind chill — it’s probably going to “feel like” the single digits for most of the day, as the strong gusts literally take your breath away. Wind serves to carry heat away from your body, accelerating the effects of frostbite and hypothermia. Days like this are extra-important to bundle up and take care of yourself against the extreme cold.

Blowing snow is a possibility, although as I mentioned snow showers will be minimal. And the snow on the ground has pretty much turned to ice already. Still worth mentioning though, as blowing snow can reduce visibility and make it feel even colder.

And finally, freezing spray. Those along the Jersey Shore (and possibly lakes and rivers too) could see wind splashing water ashore, where it freezes on contact with a cold surface. The National Weather Service has issued a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for Jersey Shore waters from Saturday night into Sunday — yes, that is a thing, very important for boaters. For most New Jerseyans, I think the best advice would be to not park your car anywhere next to a body of water on Sunday. Unless, of course, you want it potentially encased in a block of ice.

Surge

The last potential issue is exclusively for those along the Jersey Shore. Typical of strong coastal storm systems, we do have a tidal flooding threat. First one in a while, if I recall correctly.

2 to 3 feet of storm surge will combine with a full moon (Sunday) to produce several rounds of minor category flooding. This is expected to occur around high tide Sunday morning (7 a.m. oceanfront, ~3 hours later on back bays), Sunday afternoon (8 p.m. oceanfront), and Monday morning (8 a.m. oceanfront).

“Minor” flooding corresponds to the “usual” spots that generally take on water during every big storm or king tide. New Jersey’s barrier islands are especially susceptible, due to low elevation and poor drainage.

A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Ocean, Atlantic, and Cape May counties for Sunday morning. It may be expanded and extended based on tidal guidance and the extent of observed flooding.

For the record, the wind direction helps us tremendously here. If there was more of an on-shore wind — east or northeast — we would be in real trouble along the coast.

Also, rough surf may cause some erosion of beaches during this storm. There is a high risk of dangerous rip currents — but I really hope no one is swimming in the ocean this time of year, especially in this extreme cold.

After the Storm

We can all look forward to calmer, sunnier conditions returning on Monday. And warmer temperatures are on the way too!

Now, I didn’t say warm — I said warmer. Thermometers should moderate to around the freezing mark by Tuesday and Wednesday. That is still a full 15 degrees warmer than late last week. And should help with some snow and ice melt, especially when combined with bright sunshine.

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There are some minor storm system signals coming down the pike for late next week, but nothing set in stone just yet.

Long-range New Jersey’s weather trends way colder than normal through mid-February. But don’t take my word on it — let’s see what the “prognosticator of prognosticators” the weather-rodent has to say on Monday…

5 DAY FORECAST: New Jersey Weather Center

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Gallery Credit: Dan Zarrow

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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Gallery Credit: Dan Zarrow