Arizona’s three public universities are all expected to see enrollment declines this fall, driven by rising costs, fewer college-age students, and a shrinking international student pipeline.

Overall enrollments at all three of Arizona’s public universities are expected to drop this fall. Arizona State University is projected to fall by 1%, the University of Arizona by 2%, and Northern Arizona University by as much as 10%.

The declines are being driven largely by fewer on-campus students.

At ASU, on-campus attendance peaked in 2022 at 80,065 students. It has since dropped to 73,300 students. Over that same period, ASU’s online program grew by 18,990 students. The University of Arizona shows the same shift. NAU is different — its numbers are down across the board, both on-campus and online.

Cost is a leading factor. Living at home and attending ASU online costs an in-state undergraduate $12,975. Living on or near campus more than doubles that figure.

A longer-term demographic trend is also at play. Arizona births peaked in 2007 at 102,687. The college-age students from that birth year are now sophomores. The potential freshman class born in 2008 is smaller by 3,472 kids. This is not unique to Arizona — nationwide, there are simply fewer 18-year-olds to fill those seats.

International students are not making up the difference. Student visa applications fell by 10% nationwide this academic year. That decline also creates a budget problem for universities, since many international students pay full tuition.

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