Alabama faces the prospect of a few severe storms today (Friday), according to forecasters.

But November storms are nothing new.

In fact, this month really kicks off Alabama’s so-called “secondary” severe weather season, which runs through December, January and February.

And then forecasters say there are hints that the upcoming spring severe season could be even busier than usual.

STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY

There’s a possibility for a few severe storms today (Friday) in a large part of Alabama.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a Level 1 out of 5 or marginal risk today. It’s a lower-end severe weather threat, according to the National Weather Service.

The National Weather Service thinks that damaging wind gusts could be the main concern, but there will be a non-zero chance for a tornado as well.

Here’s the severe weather outlook for Friday:

A large part of Alabama (shown in dark green in the map above) has a Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe weather on Friday. Isolated severe storms will be possible everywhere except southwest Alabama starting this afternoon, and storms will be possible through the nighttime hours. But good news, the severe weather risk for Saturday has been dropped for Alabama.Storm Prediction Center

2025 TORNADOES (SO FAR)

Alabama hasn’t recorded a tornado since Oct. 26, when an EF-1 was confirmed in Baldwin County.

And before that you have go back to May to find a confirmed tornado in the state.

But believe it or not it’s been a busy year for tornadoes, according to the weather service.

Alabama has had 70 confirmed tornadoes already this year, said John De Block, the warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Birmingham.

There have been 70 confirmed tornadoes so far in 2025 in Alabama.NWS

“The 10-year average is 60 per year, the 20-year average is 64 and the 30-year average is 66. So we’re already a good five to 10 tornadoes above whatever average you might pick out,” he said.

“So we don’t need a whole lot more.”

The weather service doesn’t think there’s a big risk for tornadoes today — although they can’t be ruled out entirely.

De Block said the overall tornado threat is low, but it’s a good reminder to make sure you are ready for severe weather, just in case.

“It’s a good introduction to the fall peak of severe weather. A reminder that this is one of the times of year that we are prone to tornadoes,” he said.

“Make sure you’ve got your good batteries in your weather radio, knock the dust off your safe place, get your helmets all ready, get yourself prepared for the upcoming peak severe weather season.”

November is actually the third-most active month for tornadoes in Alabama. Of course April and May are No. 1 and No. 2.

But fall in Alabama has some of the same volatile ingredients for severe weather as the spring.

“It’s the clash of air masses,” De Block said.

“And we can see with the forecast for Monday with temperatures falling into the 20s we’re starting to see that colder air push farther south. And when that happens that colder air comes into contrast with that warmer, moist Gulf air, and that sets the stage for the potential for tornadoes. And November is the first month where we’re really starting to see that clash of the air masses.”

November has produced some of Alabama’s strongest or deadliest tornadoes, most notably the Nov. 15, 1989, F4 tornado that killed 21 people and injured 463 in the Huntsville area, according to De Block.

November of 1957 also brought not one but two F4 tornadoes just one day apart, according to De Block.

An F4 struck just north of Jasper on Nov. 17, 1957, killing four and injuring 15. Then another F4 hit on Nov. 18, tracking through Blount and Marshall counties from northwest of Oneonta to Albertville, killing three and injuring 12.

And December has also had its share of tornadoes, including an F4 on Dec. 16, 2000, near Tuscaloosa that killed 11 people and injured 144.

WORRYING SIGNS FOR SPRING

After today there is no severe weather in the forecast for Alabama through the next five days, according to forecasts from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center.

But will the calm hold, and for how long?

De Block said there are some concerns that Alabama’s spring severe weather season (March-May) could be an active one — though nothing is certain this far out.

But meteorologists are always analyzing the trends and taking clues from the past, and both of those things involve La Nina.

La Nina (along with its counterpart El Nino) is a weather phenomenon that can influence the weather worldwide.

La Nina begins with cooler-than-average ocean waters off the coast of South America. Those cooler waters can affect the weather pattens in the United States and the rest of the world.

La Nina is ongoing now, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, and is expected to continue into the winter months.

But then La Nina could transition to what’s called ENSO-neutral conditions, which means neither La Nina or El Nino. That transition could happen anytime from January through March.

And that could be bad news for those hoping for a placid spring weather pattern.

“We have noticed that when we are in a transition from a La Nina to an El Nino, or La Nina to neutral, those are some of our most prolific years of producing tornadoes,” De Block said.

“Unfortunately, we are looking at that situation for this year coming up, where we will be transitioning out of a La Nina come springtime. So that certainly has our interest and our concern.”

But anyone who has lived in Alabama for any length of time knows that it’s always good to be watchful during the spring, La Nina or not.

“A normal severe weather season in Alabama is enough to make anyone be concerned and be prepared hopefully,” De Block said.

“Tornadoes, fortunately, are rare, but they do happen. And when there’s more of them there’s a higher chance that you might personally be affected or somebody you know or love might be affected.

“So we certainly want everyone to be prepared every year regardless of whether we think there’s going to be a higher risk or lower risk for tornadoes.”

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