JOHANNESBURG | Xinhua | The escalating conflict in the Middle East is poised to have profound consequences for South Africa’s economy and the global market, a senior researcher warned on Saturday.

Na’eem Jeenah of South Africa’s Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection shared his insights with Xinhua following the Feb. 28 strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran.

Jeenah highlighted that the crisis poses a dire threat to energy security. Qatar, the world’s largest LNG supplier, has halted shipments, while the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil passes — has in effect been closed.

“Undoubtedly, this will severely impact all supply chains,” Jeenah said, noting that many countries would be victims due to their reliance on energy imports passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

“With the surge in energy prices, South Africa will undoubtedly face a spike in fuel prices and a significant knock-on effect on general inflation,” Jeenah said.

“The government may need to reassess the national budget passed by Parliament before the war began, as the underlying economic assumptions are no longer relevant,” he added.

Politically, Jeenah explained that the crisis is likely to further strain South Africa’s relations with the United States, a relationship already described as “rocky” since Donald Trump assumed the presidency in January 2025.

He also warned that disruptions to energy supplies could “choke the global economy”, affecting major powers, including China and the United States. ■