TurkStat, Turkey’s statistical authority, will change how it measures inflation from January 2026 in a move expected to push the official rate lower by reducing the impact of rent increases on the index, the BirGün daily reported on Thursday.
Critics argue that the change, introduced to align with European Union standards, will widen the gap between official inflation figures and the actual cost of living experienced by Turkish households, whose spending patterns differ significantly from those in the EU.
TurkStat announced it will revise its Consumer Price Index (CPI) methodology for the 2025 base year to comply with Eurostat regulations.
Under European Commission rules, all EU member states must update their CPI base year to “2025=100” starting January 2026.
This means the index will use 2025 price levels as its new reference point for measuring future price changes, and the basket of goods and services used to calculate inflation will be updated to reflect current consumption patterns.
The most significant change in the new methodology involves rent. “Imputed rent,” which represents the estimated rental value for homeowners, those living in employer-provided housing and those residing rent-free in relatives’ homes, will be excluded from the CPI calculation.
This will reduce the overall weight of housing and rent in the inflation basket. Under the current system, housing accounts for 15.21 percent of the index, while actual rent paid by tenants accounts for 6.8 percent.
However, household spending patterns in Turkey differ markedly from those in EU countries. According to Eurostat data, housing, food and transportation account for 49.5 percent of total household spending in the EU.
In Turkey, TurkStat’s 2024 data show these three categories make up 65.7 percent of household expenditures.
For low-income households, this figure rises to 73.7 percent. Among the lowest income group, families allocate 33.2 percent of their spending to housing and 30.4 percent to food.
At a briefing held by the agency, TurkStat Alternative Prices and Methodology Group leader Mehmet Akif Davarcı said monthly and annual inflation rates, known as headline inflation, would remain unchanged.
Davarcı added that no significant changes were expected in the food, clothing and footwear, alcoholic beverages and health categories.
Under the new system, the number of main expenditure groups will increase from 12 to 13. Personal care will be separated from social protection and miscellaneous goods and services. Insurance and financial services, along with digital content, will be included as separate categories in the inflation calculation for the first time.
CPI weights will now be based on national accounts data rather than household budget surveys. Tax, production and sales statistics will also be used to reflect informal consumption in the calculations.
TurkStat has opted for a “full backcasting” method to ensure comparability of historical data. Under this approach all past CPI data will be recalculated item by item according to the new classification system, allowing consistent comparisons between the old and new series.
Starting January 2026, seasonally adjusted CPI indicators will be published on the same day as the main CPI data. TurkStat will also release a new CPI indicator calculated with fixed indirect tax rates, assuming value-added tax and special consumption tax remain constant.
This indicator aims to measure pure market price movements without the effects of tax changes.
TurkStat has long faced public criticism over its inflation calculations. In June 2022 the agency stopped publishing details of products in the inflation basket and their average prices. TurkStat officials justified the decision by claiming prices were being “misinterpreted.”
