Jens Spahn, a senior politician from Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), has warned that the ongoing war on Iran could trigger a new wave of migration toward Europe and called for early coordination with countries such as Turkey to prevent a repeat of the 2015 refugee crisis, according to German media.
Spahn, head of the CDU parliamentary group, said Europe must act preemptively to manage potential displacement caused by the conflict, which was sparked by US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran on February 28 and escalated with retaliatory Iranian strikes on US assets in Gulf countries.
“There must not be a second 2015,” Spahn said in an interview with German broadcaster ntv on Monday evening, referring to the peak of Europe’s refugee crisis, when more than 1 million people, many fleeing the Syrian war, arrived in Europe.
Spahn said developments involving Iran highlight the need for stricter migration policies not only in Germany but across the European Union, calling for agreements with so-called safe third countries to be put in place before a new influx begins.
“We saw in Syria how quickly things can escalate,” he said. “That’s why we need to start talking to neighboring countries now.”
Spahn specifically pointed to Turkey as a key partner, saying discussions with Ankara would be essential to ensure support in the region and contain potential migration flows closer to conflict zones.
Turkey hosts between 2.9 million and 3.2 million registered Syrian refugees under temporary protection, making it the world’s largest refugee-hosting country. It has long played a central role in Europe’s migration strategy under a 2016 deal with the EU aimed at curbing irregular crossings into Greece.
Spahn said preparations should not be delayed until people are already on the move, warning that failure to act early could once again overwhelm European asylum systems.
His remarks come as tensions involving Iran raise concerns about broader regional instability and the potential displacement of civilians, particularly in neighboring countries.
European leaders have increasingly emphasized cooperation with transit countries such as Turkey in managing migration, a policy that has prompted criticism from rights groups but remains central to EU efforts to prevent large-scale arrivals.
Meanwhile, Turkish Interior Minister Mustafa Çiftçi said earlier this month that Turkey has drawn up contingency plans to contain a potential exodus from Iran before it reaches the Turkish frontier.
Çiftçi said the Interior Ministry has prepared three scenarios, with the first plan aiming to manage any potential movement on the Iranian side of the border before it reaches Turkey.
If the movement cannot be stopped, the second plan would focus on controlling it at the frontier through buffer zones along the border, he said. A third plan would allow entry into Turkey under controlled conditions as a last resort.
Çiftçi said there was no unusual activity at border crossings and that recent entries and exits were in line with normal levels.
