Fitch Ratings on Friday lowered Turkey’s outlook to stable from positive, saying the country has burned through more than $50 billion in reserves to support the lira since the start of the Iran war and now faces added risks from a longer regional conflict, even as it kept Turkey’s foreign currency credit rating at BB-.
The move means Fitch still sees Turkey as able to meet its obligations, but it no longer sees the country moving in a clearly better direction.
The ratings agency had raised the outlook to positive in January, making Friday’s decision a reversal of that earlier step.
Fitch said Turkey’s foreign currency reserves have fallen sharply in recent weeks as the central bank intervened to defend the lira and said the country’s reserve buffer has weakened at a time when Turkey still faces high inflation and large foreign funding needs.
The ratings agency also warned that a longer war involving Iran could raise oil prices and create more pressure on the Turkish economy. Because Turkey depends heavily on imported energy, higher prices could worsen inflation and increase the country’s external deficit.
Fitch noted that Turkey still has strengths, including a large economy, relatively low government debt and a banking sector it described as resilient. But it said those strengths are offset by a record of high inflation, repeated political interference in economic policy, weak external buffers and governance problems.
The agency expects inflation to ease further but remain very high by global standards.
While the risk of Turkey being pulled directly into the conflict remains low, a long period of instability in the region could still hurt confidence and make economic management harder, according to Fitch.