Research by Tongan oceanographer Dr Moleni Tu’uholoaki is helping strengthen coastal inundation early warning systems, with findings that could improve how communities prepare for cyclones and coastal flooding.

Dr Tu’uholoaki, an oceanographer with the Pacific Community (SPC), spent 19 years with the Tonga Meteorological Service, including more than a decade as Lead Forecaster.

His interest in improving disaster preparedness was shaped by his experience of Tropical Cyclone Isaac as a six-year-old, when he witnessed widespread damage and seawater pushing inland.

His PhD research at the University of the South Pacific examined tropical cyclone risk and coastal inundation in Tonga, including how climate patterns such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation influence cyclone activity.

The study analysed five decades of cyclone records and found Tonga experiences an average of 2.6 tropical cyclones each year, with almost 40 per cent reaching severe hurricane strength.

It also used modelling to examine how storm surges, extreme waves and coastal flooding could affect Tonga’s coastlines during major weather events.

The research highlights a gap between forecasting a cyclone’s track and explaining what that storm could actually mean for households and communities.

Impact-based forecasting is designed to provide more practical information, including the likely effects on homes, roads, schools, hospitals and other infrastructure.

For Tonga, where communities and essential services are heavily concentrated along the coast, such information could be critical to evacuation and preparedness decisions.

The findings also have wider Pacific relevance, providing methods that could be adapted by other island countries facing increasing coastal and cyclone risks.