Just as many East African countries are bracing for excessive rains, floods and landslides, new reports claim that El Niño’s heat could cause 451,000 additional deaths worldwide.
Even as many East African countries will suffer from the related rains instead, at least three states on the continent will be badly hit by the heat.
Already heavy downpours have already started precipitating in parts of Kenya, Uganda and DR Congo.
However, elsewhere around the global excessive heat seems to be the real problem.
In Africa, DR Congo, Nigeria and Sudan are predicted to suffer from El-Nino heat attacks.
At least 60,000 people may face serious problems on the continent due to rising temperatures.
Land temperatures around the world could average roughly 2.1°F (1.2°C) above the 1996–2025 baseline in the coming months, largely because of the El-Nino phenomenon.
A Climate Impact Lab report estimates 451,000 additional heat-related deaths that are likely to occur during the first part of this El Niño, including approximately 239,000 between September 2026 and February 2027.
The threat extends beyond brief, headline-making heat waves.
Months of persistently higher temperatures can place a cumulative strain on health.
Researchers say that sustained exposure can produce a substantial death toll even without a single dramatic weather event.
El Niño is suspected to develop when waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become unusually warm.
The resulting changes in atmospheric circulation influence heat and rainfall far beyond the Pacific.
This event is adding to temperatures already elevated by human-driven climate change.
Researchers say the coming conditions could resemble those that global warming makes typical in roughly 20 years.
The largest tolls are expected in the Global South. Over the coming months, researchers project approximately:
• Nigeria: 31,400 additional deaths
• Indonesia: 19,300
• Sudan: 17,500
• India: 15,800
• Brazil: 13,300
• Democratic Republic of Congo: 10,000
The report also projects a combined 19,400 additional deaths across the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia.
The analysis combines temperature forecasts with methods linking temperature and mortality across thousands of regions. Its estimates concern heat and exclude additional deaths from floods, droughts, wildfires, and food shortages.
These are projections, not confirmed deaths or an unavoidable outcome. The report itself had not yet undergone peer review, according to environmental experts.
Its regional detail is intended to help governments direct resources where they could save the most lives.
Earlier heat warnings, cooling centers, drinking-water access, outdoor-worker protections, and additional medical staffing could reduce the toll. Researchers say targeted action could prevent tens of thousands of deaths.
