Germany is seeking to negotiate a formal agreement with the Syrian government to deport Syrians living in the country without valid residence permits or those convicted of criminal offences, according to Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt.

Yet turning that plan into practice may prove far more complicated, given the web of legal, humanitarian and political constraints surrounding the Syrian refugee issue.

Legal and Humanitarian Hurdles

Gonzalo Vargas Llosa, head of the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) in Syria, told Süddeutsche Zeitung that the country “has reached its absolute limit; it has long since exhausted its capacity to absorb more returnees.” He warned that “sending additional Syrians back would only worsen an already dire humanitarian situation.”

According to Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, around seven million people remain internally displaced inside Syria, alongside nearly one million refugees who have already returned since the fall of the Assad regime. The United Nations estimates that 16.7 million of Syria’s 25 million residents still depend on humanitarian aid for survival.

Tarek Al-Aous, a Syrian activist in Germany and spokesperson for the refugee support organisation Pro Asyl, travelled to Damascus late last year to assess the conditions for return. “There are no homes for those going back,” he told Deutsche Welle. “In Damascus I saw several families sharing the same apartment because rents are unaffordable. Four or five families often live together in four or five rooms.”

He added that the lack of security and widespread presence of weapons continue to affect daily life. “Every house in Damascus and elsewhere has a weapon,” he said. “What Syria needs is sustainable security — only then will people return voluntarily.”

Berlin’s Contact with Damascus

The German government confirmed that it is in contact with Syria’s new administration, led by President Ahmad al-Sharaa — the former opposition commander who now heads the transitional government in Damascus.

A statement from Berlin noted that “the Interior Ministry considers the return of offenders without residence rights to their countries of origin a necessary measure.”

But legal experts cautioned that even if a deportation agreement were signed, its implementation would remain limited. Valentin Weinberg, a researcher in public law and politics at Lüneburg University, said that “such an agreement would only regulate procedures; it would not mean that deportations could take place immediately. Each case must still be examined individually.”

He explained that “committing a crime does not automatically make someone deportable — the decision always depends on conditions in the country of origin.” Under German and European law, deportation is prohibited if the individual risks torture, execution, or serious human rights violations upon return.

Daniel Thym, professor of European and international law at the University of Konstanz, agreed, noting that while the number of Syrians granted protection in Germany may decrease now that the war has officially ended, “focusing first on criminals is a political priority, not a legal one.”

The plan has also drawn moral criticism. Left-wing MP Jan van Aken argued that “anyone calling for deportations to Syria is not only morally bankrupt but clearly has no idea about the situation there — or here in Germany.”

Refugees as a Labour Asset

The debate comes at a time when Syrians have become an increasingly important part of Germany’s workforce. The Federal Employment Agency reports that around 236,000 Syrian nationals are now employed and contributing taxes — a significant boost for an ageing society facing chronic labour shortages.

Meanwhile, over 225,000 people from various nationalities are currently under deportation orders, including roughly 9,600 Syrians holding “tolerated stay” (Duldung) permits — the group most likely to be affected by any future deal with Damascus.

Weinberg added that German and EU courts may continue to block removals if humanitarian conditions remain “life-threatening” or if “extreme poverty prevails throughout the country.”

Damascus Launches Free Return Flights from Libya

In a contrasting development, the Syrian government has launched a programme offering free airline tickets for Syrians wishing to return from Libya, according to Agence France-Presse.

Hundreds of Syrians gathered on Saturday at a travel agency in Tripoli authorised by Damascus to distribute the tickets. By midday, more than 700 people had registered for exit permits or flight bookings, and thousands more have reportedly applied since the Syrian Foreign Ministry announced the initiative earlier this month.

In mid-August, a Syrian delegation reopened the country’s embassy in Tripoli after more than a decade of closure. Two months later, in early October, the International Organization for Migration (IOM), “at the request of the Syrian Foreign Ministry,” repatriated 152 vulnerable Syrians who had been stranded in Libya for over ten years as part of its voluntary return programme.

Although there are no official figures on the Syrian population in Libya, thousands of families have lived there for decades, while many others arrived during the war in hopes of crossing the Mediterranean to Europe.

Between Symbolism and Reality

Berlin’s cautious overtures toward Damascus and Syria’s simultaneous campaign to encourage voluntary returns reveal two competing narratives — one driven by European domestic politics, the other by the Syrian government’s desire to project normalcy.

Yet UN assessments and eyewitness reports from within Syria continue to paint a grim picture: devastated infrastructure, economic collapse, and persistent insecurity. In this context, forced or incentivised returns risk deepening rather than resolving the humanitarian crisis.

The fate of Syrians in exile — whether in Germany, Libya, or elsewhere — thus remains entangled between legal constraints, political symbolism, and a still-fragile post-war reality.

 

This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.