Spain has blocked access to prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi while authorities investigate whether the companies breached Spanish gambling laws by operating without the required licence.
The Ministry of Social Rights & Consumer Affairs, led by Minister Pablo Bustinduy, said on Tuesday that it had opened disciplinary proceedings against the two US-based firms over allegations they lacked the ‘necessary administrative authorisation’ to operate in Spain.
Under the precautionary measures announced in the Official State Gazette, both platforms will remain inaccessible in Spain until the investigation is completed, a process expected to take between three and four months.
Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell stakes linked to the outcome of future events — ranging from elections and political developments to sporting events and even the weather — with prices reflecting the perceived probability of a particular outcome occurring. The model is also commonly referred to as ‘peer-to-peer betting’.
‘In Spain, in line with other European jurisdictions, prediction markets are considered gambling when bets are placed on uncertain future outcomes,’ the ministry said in a statement. ‘Therefore, operating them in Spain requires obtaining a specific administrative licence.’
Spanish authorities said operators must comply with a range of technical and regulatory safeguards before being granted permission to operate legally, including identity verification systems, controls preventing access by minors and people who have self-excluded from gambling, and wider consumer protection standards.
The ministry added that it had attempted to contact Polymarket and Kalshi before ordering the block, but said those efforts had ‘proved unsuccessful’.
Spain’s action is the latest sign of growing regulatory pressure on prediction market platforms around the world. Several European countries, including France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Romania, have already restricted or blocked access to Polymarket over concerns surrounding unlicensed gambling activity.
The industry, once a niche online market, has rapidly expanded into a multi-billion-dollar business after gaining major traction in US politics during 2024. However, it has also attracted mounting scrutiny and accusations ranging from insider trading risks to ethical concerns over betting on geopolitical crises and military conflicts.
Attention intensified after reports that some users placed large bets ahead of the US-Israeli conflict involving Iran and Washington’s military action in Venezuela.
Outside Europe, countries including Indonesia have banned Polymarket, while Brazil earlier this year blocked more than two dozen prediction market platforms.
In the United States, Minnesota recently became the first state to approve legislation banning such sites from operating there, prompting a legal challenge from the Trump administration, which accused the state of undermining federal regulatory authority. Another 14 US states are considering legislation aimed at regulating the rapidly growing sector.
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‼️Consumo expedienta y bloquea las polémicas plataformas de apuestas Polymarket y Kalshi por operar sin permisohttps://t.co/XVFLVPIPS8
— elDiario.es (@eldiarioes) May 26, 2026
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