Japan’s decision to loosen long-standing restrictions on weapons exports could gradually push South Korea to the margins of the high-end defense market as alliance integration and multinational development programs become increasingly important in global arms procurement.

While Seoul is expected to remain highly competitive in lower-cost ground systems and rapid delivery contracts, experts told Korea Pro that Tokyo’s expanding role in aerospace, missile defense and next-generation joint development could reshape parts of the market around strategic alignment with the U.S. and its partners.

That shift carries longer-term implications for South Korea beyond individual export deals. As defense programs become more