MOGADISHU, Somalia — The Somali Federal Government (FGS) has decided to form a rival Jubaland administration based in Garbahaarey, following the collapse of reconciliation talks between President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and regional leader Ahmed Mohamed Islam, widely known as Ahmed Madobe.
The move — described by officials as the government’s “Plan B” — marks a major escalation in the long-running constitutional and political standoff between Mogadishu and the semi-autonomous southern state.
Sources confirmed to Caasimada Online that the decision was finalized after a series of high-level meetings at Villa Somalia. President Mohamud reportedly declared that the federal government would no longer tolerate a regional authority operating outside the country’s constitutional framework.
He has since assigned direct responsibility for the process to Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre, saying the matter is now “firmly in the hands of the executive.”
The political crisis deepened after the latest round of negotiations in Kismayo, Jubaland’s administrative capital, ended without any breakthrough. Both President Mohamud and Ahmed Madobe held firm to their respective positions.
The president demanded that Madobe rescind his contested November 2024 re-election — a vote Mogadishu had denounced as unconstitutional and a breach of term limits. Madobe, meanwhile, insisted his third term be formally recognized before any further compromise could be reached.
“The talks in Kismayo did not yield any result,” President Mohamud was quoted as telling senior officials, stressing the need to align Jubaland’s governance with federal law.
The breakdown highlighted the enduring tension within Somalia’s federal system, where the balance of power between Mogadishu and regional states remains unresolved.
Mediation efforts led by neighboring Kenya — a long-time stakeholder in Jubaland’s stability — also faltered, as Kenyan envoys departed Kismayo following the failed talks.
Soon after the diplomatic collapse, Prime Minister Barre convened a meeting with lawmakers and cabinet ministers hailing from Jubaland. The session focused on setting up the technical and structural groundwork for a new “Jubaland Garbahaarey administration.”
According to reliable sources, the federal government intends to swiftly establish a temporary governing body headquartered in Garbahaarey, a strategic city in the Gedo region.
Officials describe the plan as part of a broader effort to reassert federal authority and integrate Gedo — a long-disputed area within Jubaland — more tightly into Mogadishu’s orbit.
In recent months, the government has consolidated control over several key districts in Gedo, drawing support from influential local leaders within the Marehan clan.
President Mohamud has reportedly directed his cabinet to “immediately begin the process of forming a new Jubaland,” signaling a decisive pivot from negotiation toward unilateral action.
Analysts warn that the establishment of a rival Jubaland administration could exacerbate political and security tensions across southern Somalia. The move comes as the federal government continues an internationally backed military campaign against the Al-Shabaab insurgency.
A renewed rift between Mogadishu and Kismayo risks diverting troops and resources away from counterterrorism operations — potentially creating openings that Al-Shabaab could exploit, according to regional security experts.
The rival power centers — Madobe’s established government in Kismayo and the new FGS-backed administration in Garbahaarey — are now poised to compete for legitimacy, territorial control, and key revenue sources, including border crossings and the lucrative Kismayo port.
The coming weeks will be pivotal as Mogadishu attempts to consolidate its influence in Gedo and formalize the structure of the new Jubaland government. Observers warn the process could trigger direct confrontations between rival forces and deepen Somalia’s political fragmentation.
