By Ali Haji Warsame

Somalia’s perpetual political wrangling is both mind-boggling and captivating. The country is deeply divided over ongoing disputes and ineffective cooperation. The political elite of Somalia, regardless of their affiliations, once again fail to acknowledge the gravity of the situation and choose to address it or take action. Each faction blames the others for the turmoil, while the public continues to suffer as a consequence.

The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) has consistently refused to involve anyone in the decision-making process on issues that could alter the country’s fundamental governance structure. These issues, including the power-sharing mechanism, the appointment and dismissal of the Prime Minister, the process of constitutional change (explained in chapter 15 of the constitution), and the transition from indirect elections to universal suffrage, should have been agreed upon in consensus.

The Federal Government of Somalia has struggled to engage with the opposition and other political stakeholders throughout three prime years of its four-year mandate. Instead of fostering collaboration, it has attempted to unilaterally dictate solutions to contentious national issues, often using the infamous slogan “loo joojin maayo,” which can be loosely translated as “we’re not bothering with anyone.”

This period was intended to focus on addressing the country’s security crisis, reforming and rebuilding an all-inclusive Somali National Army (SNA), ensuring fair resource sharing, equitable distribution of aid, and providing essential services like education and healthcare to citizens, particularly to the poor and youth. Additionally, addressing the secession of the North West and working towards national unity and territorial integrity were critical national priorities.

To enhance security, the FGS aimed to transition  the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) to The African Union Stabilization Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) and gradually assume vital security responsibilities for government institutions. Defeating extremism within the country was also a top priority during the first 24 months of its tenure. The FGS’s national slogan of “promoting peace among Somalis and with the international community” was meant to be actively practised to prevent governance breakdown and to bring the AS militia under control.

Instead, significant resources were redirected towards destabilizing the most peaceful Federal Member State (FMS), while also sowing divisions within the more fragile regions. The fight against Al-Shabaab (AS) shifted from focusing on national security to opposing the re-integration of national forces. This diversion of essential resources led to a reduction of efforts for poverty alleviation and the provision of critical services, resulting in increased death and destruction. The restoration of the country’s airspace under state control after many years, has been weaponised against the people in these regions, rather than enhancing and improving travel arrangements and freedom of movement.

Ultimately, the government realised that time was running out, and making unilateral decisions about the country’s direction was a futile exercise, if not impossible. The formation of the National Salvation Forum compelled the FGS to reconsider its approach and address urgent issues before international partners intervened, with only nine months remaining in the FGS’s tenure. As a supporter of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud during his 2022 presidential bid, I had hoped that, having previously led Villa Somalia for five years as a president (2012-2017) and spent another five years in opposition (2017-2022), a period the nearly led to an armed conflict akin and comparable to that of 1991, the president will bring a sense of reason to the role and to ultimately avoid repeating mistakes from his first term.

However, the reality on the ground was less hopeful than we had anticipated. Instead of leveraging his experience to make positive changes, the president, for some reason, took a different approach, which is less comprehensible to me, given his age and maturity. Some blame him for carrying out the worst public land grab since 2017, and that action displaced thousands of residents in the capital, destroying their homes and livelihoods at a time when the cost of living was rising and poverty was widespread.

According to assessments from UN agencies in the country and the Somalia National Bureau of Statistics (SNBS), over half of the population now lives below the poverty line. Corruption is rampant and uncontrollable, and Somalia consistently continues to rank last in transparency indices. According to the latest report from Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), Somalia scored 9 out of 100, which places it at 179th out of 180 countries, a trend of consistently being listed among the most corrupt countries globally. The country lacks an anti-corruption commission, which plays a vital role in preserving the integrity of public institutions and ensuring that government actions are transparent and accountable.

The Mo Ibrahim index for African good governance also reflects a similar pattern as one of the key indicators of transparency and good governance in Africa. The Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG) evaluates the quality of governance across the continent. The IIAG incorporates 81 indicators and 265 variables from 54 different data projects, drawing on 47 independent data sources from both African and international origins. In 2022, Somalia was ranked at 23.20%, placing it 53rd out of 54 surveyed African countries, making it the lowest on the list. This ranking highlights the current state of governance in Somalia and emphasises the urgent need to reassess and improve governance practices in the country.

Meeting between President Hassan and The Salvation
Forum, June, 2025,Villa Somalia, Mogadishu

Amidst these man-made disasters, some regions like Awdal are experiencing their worst drought ever. Meanwhile, the conflict between government forces in Gedo displaces hundreds of thousands of people in Beled-Hawo and surrounding areas. The AS are regaining strategic territories from the government forces, which they have held since 2011, leaving the Macawiskey public resistance vulnerable to the relentless AS without government support. Puntland State, which has unilaterally declared war on ISIS (Da’esh), remains isolated and lacking full government backing. Despite this, the Puntland army has shown bravery and exceptional perseverance, defeating ISIS and recapturing key locations step by step, with the support of the local population and national mobilisation of resources. Even the Somali diaspora from Puntland has effectively contributed to the country’s liberation from ISIS, a timely assistance that truly made a difference.

The Somali Salvation Forum, an organization formed by former heads of state, prime ministers, and political figures at the national and state level, was the most organised opposition to date. Despite efforts to reach consensus on a clear platform for all issues, the group was unable to unite, resulting in the departure of some prominent members this week.

Four members have withdrawn from the forum and have reached a new agreement with Villa Somalia. The Somalia Salvation Forum reaffirms unity, according to WardheerNews. Those who have left include former two-term Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmake, former Southwest President Sharif Hassan Sh. Aden, former Parliament Speaker Mohamed Mursal of SouthWest State, and former Minister Amb. Dahir Mohamoud Gelle, all of whom have indicated their alignment with the government. This new division is likely to frustrate the opposition and decrease public support in the short term.

It is important to note that the critical issues of disagreement have not yet been resolved, and the federal member states of Puntland and Jubbaland have not been brought on board, which was part of the forum’s previous demand to engage with the government. The principle of one-person one-vote is significantly undermined as the newly established FMS of North East has chosen to conduct indirect elections for both the state parliament and the presidential race. This precedent may negatively impact the electoral processes in Galmudug and South West states, leading to opt out 1P1V for the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections. It is equally important to note that the neighbouring countries, particularly Ethiopia and Kenya, continue to meddle in the internal politics of the country, seeking to deepen divisions within the country to gain control of its coastline and natural resources.

Time is running out, and the nation cannot afford further political rift and instability that could weaken its fragile state and invite foreign meddling by interfering in its internal affairs. Without urgent participation from all stakeholders in shaping the country’s future, we risk missing the opportunity to prevent a catastrophe. Current government and opposition leaders must work together to salvage what they can and unite to create a prosperous and sustainable future for the nation.

Ali Haji Warsame, MA, MBA and CPA
Executive Director – Hiil Institute
Former Puntland Minister of Education
Email: ali.warsame@hiilinstitute.org