Mogadishu (WDN) – A new report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) has concluded that the war between the Federal Government of Somalia and the militant group Al-Shabaab has once again entered a state of stalemate, following a significant shift in control across territories that were previously recaptured from the group during major offensives in 2022 and 2023.
According to the report, Al-Shabaab has managed to regain a foothold in several areas from which it had earlier been expelled, highlighting the group’s resilience and continued operational strength despite years of sustained military campaigns by Somali and allied forces.
The report notes that while the Federal Government continues to maintain strong defensive positions around Mogadishu and other key strategic cities, mounting pressure on government forces has raised concerns about the sustainability of recent security gains.
ICG identified several factors undermining the government’s efforts to decisively defeat the insurgency. These include shortcomings in military training and force development, persistent political divisions within Somalia’s leadership, and a decline in international support for the country’s security operations.
The report also warns that Somalia’s security strategy requires urgent reassessment. It urges the Federal Government and its international partners to accelerate reforms within the security sector, improve coordination among military and security agencies, and strengthen institutional capacity to confront the evolving threat posed by Al-Shabaab.
In a notable recommendation, the International Crisis Group argued that Somalia should begin considering the possibility of a future political dialogue aimed at ending the conflict, warning that a purely military approach is unlikely to deliver lasting stability.
The report emphasized that while military pressure remains necessary, experience has shown that force alone may not be sufficient to bring an end to one of Africa’s longest-running insurgencies.
ICG concluded that Somalia is entering a particularly sensitive period, one that demands stronger political cooperation, enhanced security coordination, and sustained international engagement. Without a more comprehensive strategy, the organization warned, the conflict could become further entrenched, prolonging instability and undermining prospects for long-term peace.
The findings come at a critical moment as Somalia faces growing security challenges, political tensions, and uncertainty surrounding the future of international support for its counterterrorism efforts.
WardheerNews
