By Buraale Askar

During Djibouti’s struggle for independence Somalia provided support, including covert assistance and, according to numerous accounts, special-forces participation, that enabled Djiboutian nationalists to resist colonial rule. That legacy of mutual aid renders the present developments particularly disconcerting: the current Djiboutian government under President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh has been implicated in actions that appear to undermine Somalia’s constitutional order and the integrity of Somali political representation.

The principal locus of controversy centers on the outcome of the Arta Conference held on May 2, 2000, in Djibouti. Convened under the auspices of the Djiboutian government, the conference sought to reconstitute Somalia’s political institutions after nearly a decade of state collapse. However, the process was dominated by clan elders and traditional leaders rather than constitutional scholars or legal experts. As a result, the agreements that emerged from Arta prioritized clan representation over institutional design, embedding tribalism at the heart of Somalia’s state reconstruction.

President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh

The conference was also heavily shaped by the influence of Djiboutian authorities, particularly President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, whose political interests played a decisive role in determining the composition and direction of the talks. The resulting parliamentary allocations were neither constitutionally grounded nor demographically representative, and many participants viewed them as arbitrary and politically expedient. In particular, the distribution of seats, by which certain groups obtained a disproportionately large share, has long been a source of grievance.This led to discontent among several delegations—most notably the Gadabursi Ugaas and his delegation, departed the conference in protest.

It is also important to recall that the 4.5 clan-based power-sharing formula, adopted during the Arta process, was intended only as a temporary measure to facilitate a transition toward a formal, inclusive, and merit-based system of democratic governance. However, over time, it became entrenched as a structural feature of Somalia’s political order, perpetuating clan divisions and undermining the development of a truly national and constitutional state.

President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh has now invoked the Arta arrangements and has summoned Somalia’s head of state, government officials, parliamentarians, opposition figures and politicians to a ceremony intended to reaffirm those contested provisions. For many Somalis this is not merely ceremonial: it is perceived as an effort to legitimize the 4.5 clan power sharing widely regarded as unconstitutional and inequitable. Accepting such a ceremony without a rigorous legal and political review, and a way forward, would establish a dangerous precedent in which external actors effectively determine Somalia powers sharing, internal parliamentary representation and thereby distort constitutional governance.

More importantly, twenty-five years after the Arta Conference, Somalia has made little meaningful progress. The federal government and member states remain locked in perpetual confrontation, paralyzing governance and fragmenting national unity. Meanwhile, extremist groups continue to control vast areas of central and southern Somalia, undermining security and eroding public trust in the state.

There is, therefore, little cause for celebration and fan fair. Instead, Somalis must confront the hard road ahead—one that demands sober reflection, genuine reconciliation, and a national effort to rescue the country from the grip of thirty-five years of conflict, corruption, and chaos.

The history of Somali–Djiboutian solidarity argues for constructive bilateral relations, not for interventions that erode Somalia’s constitutional order. The Somali people and their legitimate institutions have both the right and the duty to reject this 29/10/2025 Arta Conference, and  any external attempt to impose an unconstitutional allocation of power. The federal government of Somalia must pursue a fair, transparent correction that restore confidence in the country’s democratic institutions.

Recommended responses are threefold:

1)  Somali state institutions, the legislature, the executive and the judiciary, must assert and exercise their constitutional authority; any external initiative that seeks to alter representation or to validate past irregularities should be subject to constitutional review.

2) A transparent, independent audit of the Arta allocations should be commissioned, engaging Somali constitutional scholars, review of past regional clan representations, past regional election results, legal experts and neutral international observers acceptable to Somali stakeholders.

3) An inclusive national dialogue involving federal member states, clans, political parties and civil society is essential to develop a durable and legally defensible formula for parliamentary representation that reflects demographic realities and the federal compact.

Buraale Askar