Sociologist Dalibor Petrović assessed that the balance of power between the regime and student blocs ahead of the snap parliamentary election on 25 October is currently roughly even, stating that the authorities are facing a “real threat” of losing the election for the first time. 

Speaking about the decision to call the election within the shortest legal timeframe, Petrović said that the government had spent a long time assessing which moment would be most advantageous for them.

“In the end, we actually got the shortest possible legal timeframe to organise the election – 45 or 46 days – which already indicates that whoever is starting this match is putting all other competitors in a rather uncomfortable and awkward position,” Petrović said.

According to him, various polls and the general atmosphere in society over the past year point to a 50-50 situation when looking at the two strongest blocs: the regime and the student movement.

“Circumstances are not favourable for the regime, given that they have never faced such a real threat of being defeated at the ballot box,” Petrović noted.

He believes the authorities may also have timed the election with an eye on the presidential election, which is scheduled for next year, but decided to separate the two electoral processes. Petrović does not rule out the possibility that Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić might resign after the parliamentary election, clearing the path for the presidential vote.

“Their idea is different: likely to win power and then, in an atmosphere of disappointment and divisions that would follow over the coming months – in complete apathy – to organise presidential elections in five or six months,” Petrović said.

Potential presidential candidate

Speaking about a potential candidate for the ruling coalition in the presidential election, Petrović assessed that SPS leader Ivica Dačić stands out as one option, which he believes could be part of an agreement between the SNS and the Socialists. “I think Dačić clearly stands out there as a potential presidential candidate, and that is likely some form of agreement,” Petrović said.

He noted that Dačić’s potential candidature could serve as a “softer option” for voters unwilling to vote directly for the ruling party, whilst SPS voters would follow the party’s recommendation.

Petrović does not expect a new candidate like Siniša Mali, Miloš Vučević, or Đura Macut to necessarily emerge in that case because, as he explained, in the model of a “charismatic”, authoritarian, or populist party, a strong leader suppresses other political figures who could become rivals.

“In that sense, neither Siniša Mali nor anyone else, such as Vučević—let alone Macut and similar figures who do not even come from that political background—would practically stand any chance,” Petrović said.

He added that the future president of Serbia, contrary to current political practice, could be returned to a role primarily defined by constitutional and ceremonial duties.

“Pressures will grow, culminating on election day”

Petrović expects the campaign over the next 45 days to intensify further, featuring a heavier focus on promoting the government’s achievements, cash handouts to citizens, and increased pressure on structures linked to state institutions.

“I expect pressure to increase on all structures, especially those connected to state institutions. I expect tensions to rise,” he said.

In his view, the 25 October election will act as a form of “referendum election”, where citizens will primarily choose between maintaining the current system or voting for change.

“I don’t think political messaging or detailed manifestos will be overly important. This is a classic referendum election in which citizens will essentially choose between a continuation of what we currently have or change – whatever that change may be – with details to be sorted out afterwards,” Petrović stated.

He expects tensions and pressure to build as election day approaches, predicting they will peak precisely on 25 October.

At the same time, Petrović believes the authorities will not be able to rely on a completely irregular electoral process, as securing some level of recognition for the results from European and international institutions will remain important to them.

“I think it will be important for the regime that European and international institutions recognise the election results in some way, and that they won’t have the luxury of aiming for victory under completely fraudulent conditions,” Petrović said.

According to his assessment, the need for international validation could act as a “slight brake” on the most blatant forms of election rigging.

(Insajder, 11.09.2026)

https://insajder.net/vesti/petrovic-vlast-se-prvi-put-suocava-sa-realnom-opasnoscu-da-izgubi-izbore-video