Russia enters autumn in an atmosphere of foreboding. Intensified Ukrainian strikes, a gasoline deficit, and lack of progress on the battlefront are leading more and more people to surmise that the Kremlin is no longer able to wage its war against Ukraine as a distant operation that has little impact on Russian everyday life. 

It will only get worse, and soon the regime will demand more sacrifices for its geopolitical adventures.

The date for change looks set for late September, following parliamentary elections. 

Though the vote is tightly managed by authorities, the Kremlin still pays lip service to democratic procedures. It avoids taking unpopular steps during the campaign and strives to preserve a semblance of stability at least until after voting day.

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