Russian influence campaign

Other developments also suggest that Russia might be lending the Hungarian government a helping hand.

On March 6,  a money convoy carrying 40 million dollars, 35 million euros and 9 kilograms of gold from Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank to Ukraine’s Oschadbank was stopped by Hungary’s anti-terrorism unit, which detained several Ukrainian citizens and seized the money.

Hungary’s transport minister openly declared that the funds would not be returned until oil supplies resumed – a move that looked like a clear tit-for-tat response.

Both Raiffeisen and Oschadbank claim that all documentation and authorisations were in order. Hungarian media reported that similar money transfers have routinely taken place through Hungary for years, sometimes even involving companies linked to a business ally of the prime minister. Nevertheless, Hungary’s government is already trying to link the opposition party to the money convoy, implying – without any evidence – that the funds were intended for secret party financing.

“It could also be part of a Russian influence campaign,” the security expert Buda says. “These stories are usually not very sophisticated, but they can reach a certain part of the electorate. The strategy is well known: build up a fake story and spread it as loudly and widely as possible.”

What few people saw coming during this campaign was Prime Minister Orban posting a video in which he calls his three daughters in a dramatic voice, warning them that their physical security could be at risk.

“You will see in the news that we have been threatened. We need to take this seriously, but don’t panic,” he tells his daughters, in a somewhat surreal video.

Previously, former Ukrainian MP Hryhoriy Omelchenko, a rather irrelevant politician in his country, posted a video in which he warned Orban that “karma” (destiny) would punish him for his actions, and advised him to think about his own children and grandchildren when Ukrainian children suffer. The video, which was carefully edited and probably also manipulated, quickly went viral in Hungary’s pro-government media. Governing politicians gasped in horror that “Ukrainians were already threatening Orban’s grandchildren.”

“This is evidently a doctored video,” Buda says. “Whether the Hungarian government was aware of the manipulation is unclear. But by reacting with this phone call, the Hungarian prime minister has become part of the Russian influence campaign – either consciously or unconsciously.”

Previously a mysterious photo of rumpled bedsheets in a hotel room went viral on social media, with a website hinting at sordid details to come about opposition leader Peter Magyar’s private life. Magyar opted for a pre-emptive strike, admitting to having had sex with a former girlfriend in a flat where others drank alcohol and possibly also consumed drugs. Insiders believe a classic Russian-style kompromat operation was preparing to incriminate him with drug abuse, but the story appears to have since been dropped.

Interestingly, media reports about possible Russian interference in the election campaign has provided the opposition with an unexpected opportunity. “Orban is inviting the Russians back to Hungary. No one has done anything like that since 1956,” Magyar declared, quickly drawing a parallel with the Soviets crushing Hungary’s anti-Communist revolution 70 years ago.

Therefore, inviting in Russian troops (or, in this case, intelligence officers) is definitely a taboo in Hungarian politics and could help Magyar take the wind out of Orban’s campaign sails. “This is a strong response, the best Tisza can do,” reckons the political analyst Kreko, though he does not see it as a game-changer, since the opposition has largely ceded the foreign policy field to Fidesz.

What most experts agree on is that Hungarian-Ukrainian relations will require a major reset after the election. “No matter who wins, relations will have to be rebuilt,” says Ukraine expert Jarabik.

That, of course, would be easier with a new government in office. But with peace in Ukraine nowhere in sight – and the Trump administration currently focused on its war with Iran – some form of modus vivendi with Kyiv will eventually have to be found by whoever wins the election.