Although it has not yet been formally presented, according to July research by New Serbian Political Thought (NSPM), the Student List has grown to nearly 40 per cent support among decided voters, whilst the ruling bloc moves around a third of the total electorate, Đorđe Vukadinović told N1.

Vukadinović stated that NSPM would publish more detailed data from the survey next week, but noted that certain trends are already visible.

“The government is roughly at the level it has been for months, more or less. I am referring to Aleksandar Vučić’s list. Do not get carried away by any drop, but on the other hand, there is also none of what they have been denying for a year, following campaigns we have already forgotten: flats for young people, discounts, capping retail margins…” Vukadinović told N1.

As he noted, the NSPM survey was conducted in July on a representative sample of 1,000 respondents.

What is the ruling party’s ‘gross result’?

Vukadinović says the ruling bloc has managed to keep its support at approximately the same level, but stresses that this figure should not automatically be viewed as an election outcome.

“They have managed to stay where they are, and where they are is not small. The ruling bloc sits around a third, somewhere near 33 per cent. That is not an election result; it is a gross result. In an election, that outcome depends on voter turnout. So, the SNS plus the Radicals plus the SPS have somewhere up to a third of the electorate, even slightly less than that, according to our findings,” he stated.

According to his estimate, such a result could translate into a significantly higher percentage for the ruling group on polling day.

“Approximately, that result hints at between 42 and 44 per cent for the ruling group. That means all of them combined – SPS, SNS, and the Radicals,” Vukadinović said.

On the other hand, he assesses that there is a broader bloc of opponents to the government.

“That grouping will be called Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia, which is a particular piece of cynicism. On the other side, you have a bloc that is somewhat larger-exceeding 40 per cent of opponents to the regime and Aleksandar Vučić-and that is what the pro-regime media do not like to hear. That bloc is larger, but it is far more fluid, uncertain, and not fully shaped as a whole,” he assessed.

‘The elephant in the room that no-one is talking about’

Vukadinović believes the SPS will not stand independently in the election, despite occasional announcements to that effect.

“Some within the SPS say they will run separately, but they will not be allowed to run separately. That is the elephant in the room we are sweeping under the carpet,” he said.

Speaking about the opposition, Vukadinović noted that support grew most for the as-yet unformed Student List.

“You have the grouping that is strongest and which has grown in the meantime compared to the previous few months. You have the Student List, not yet formed, which has grown further, but you also have them and the opposition, who are mutually divided and do not know how they will go into the election,” he said.

Higher percentage for the student list than before

He added that when undecided voters are excluded from the results, the Student List receives a significantly higher percentage than in previous estimates.

“That bloc as a whole, together with the voters who don’t know who they are going to vote for yet, goes over 40 per cent. But when we remove these voters, the Student List has risen to near 40 per cent. That is lower than what Crta published, but significantly higher than what was previously predicted for them,” Vukadinović stated.

Voters who are still undecided opting for the student list?

He believes that, individually, the student list could be stronger than the SNS as a standalone party, though not to the extent sometimes portrayed.

“I think individually they are probably stronger than the SNS as a party, but not by 10 or 12 per cent-rather by a percentage point or slightly more. And that is a significant moment that did not exist a few months ago,” he said.

Vukadinović explained that a portion of voters who previously described themselves merely as opponents of the government-without clearly backing a specific option-have now shifted in greater numbers towards the Student List.

“I see two more things as new. In earlier surveys, we included the option: ‘I am against the government, but I don’t know who for.’ This time, we asked them to decide, which is not easy for some. Now, those who previously did not know who they would vote for, but were against the ruling regime, have largely migrated towards the Student List,” he noted.

Opposition bloc probably has between 10 and 15% electoral support

According to him, the traditional opposition bloc has remained at roughly the same level.

“The opposition bloc has stayed where it was, somewhere between 10 and 15 per cent, left and right combined. The national-right bloc is somewhere between four and six per cent, and the left is between eight and ten per cent,” Vukadinović stated.

(Danas, 24.07.2026)

https://www.danas.rs/vesti/politika/vukadinovic-studentska-lista-40-odsto/