As the Owner Operator and Director of Aiga Energy Limited, operating Z Energy service stations across West Auckland, I want to make clear that the views I am sharing are entirely my own, based on my personal reading of international developments, New Zealand market conditions, and the operational realities we see on the ground.

I am not speaking on behalf of Z Energy, any other retailer, or any industry body.

In my view, the challenges New Zealand is facing right now are not due to a lack of fuel within the country. New Zealand continues to hold several weeks’ worth of supply, between 32 and 52 days depending on the fuel type, when onshore reserves and shipments already en route are taken into account.

The real pressure point is coming from global supply constraints, shipping disruptions, and the volatility created by the escalating geopolitical conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut down, a chokepoint that normally carries around 20 percent of the world’s oil, tanker movements have fallen sharply, leaving many vessels delayed or immobilised.

Economists have noted that an extended conflict could push oil to US$200 per barrel, which could in turn lift New Zealand fuel prices above $4.00 per litre. Based on that scenario and the current level of volatility, it is possible that further increases of 50 cents to $1.00 per litre could occur in the short term. That is not guaranteed, but the risk is real.

Because New Zealand relies fully on imported refined fuel, any disruption in the global market feeds directly into the domestic market.

From my experience managing service stations, most of the temporary pump outages seen across parts of Aotearoa in the past week have been the result of localised demand spikes, not a collapse in national supply. When panic buying lifts demand well above normal levels, scheduled tanker deliveries cannot always move fast enough to restock every site immediately.

Under normal conditions, the delivery system works efficiently. But sudden and concentrated surges in demand place even the best-run network under strain. That is why some communities have seen empty pumps despite the country still having fuel in storage and more shipments on the way.

In my view, the most important thing New Zealanders can do right now is continue buying fuel as normal, without stockpiling or panic buying.

When people start filling multiple containers, topping up every day, or buying far more than they need, forecourts drain faster than delivery schedules can recover. That creates artificial shortages even when the national supply position remains stable.

Panic buying does not help consumers. It increases stress, creates unnecessary queues, raises safety risks, and can lead to abuse directed at frontline staff who should never become the target of public frustration. In the end, it harms the same communities people are trying to protect.

In times like this, fuel sustainability is a shared responsibility. If people buy what they normally buy, the system can cope. If people stockpile, they create pressure that does not need to exist.

The current situation is serious, and the humanitarian and geopolitical drivers behind the fuel price spike are unlike anything seen in recent decades. But from everything I have seen, both internationally and across our stations here in West Auckland, New Zealand is not running out of fuel.

What we are experiencing is a global shock playing out on our forecourts. With calm, measured purchasing habits and continued monitoring by government and industry, I believe Aotearoa can get through this period more smoothly.

Fa‘amatalaga i le gagana Samoa

O a‘u o le Pule ma le Umia o Aiga Energy Limited, lea o lo‘o fa‘agaioia ai nofoaga o Z Energy i le itu i Sisifo o Aukilani. Ou te fa‘amanino atu ma le faaaloalo, o manatu o lo‘o ou fa‘asoa atu o a‘u lava ia, ma e fa‘avae i lo‘u lava silasila i tulaga o lo‘o tutupu i atunu‘u i fafo, suiga o le maketi o suau‘u i Niu Sila, ma tulaga moni o lo‘o matou feagai ai i le eleele.

E le o a‘u o tautala mo Z Energy, po o se isi lava kamupani fa‘atau suau‘u, po o se fa‘alapotopotoga i totonu o le atunu‘u.

I lo‘u manatu, e le o mafua mai lu‘itau o lo‘o feagai ma Niu Sila i le taimi nei i le leai o se suau‘u i totonu o le atunu‘u. E tusa ai ma fa‘amatalaga lata mai, o lo‘o iai pea e lata i le 32 i le 52 aso o le sapalai o suau‘u i Niu Sila, pe a fuafua fa‘atasi ma mea o lo‘o teuina i tane i fanua ma uta fo‘i o lo‘o aga‘i mai.

O le mafua‘aga autū o le fa‘aletonu o lo‘o tatou va‘aia, o lo‘o sau lea mai fa‘afitauli i sapalai o le lalolagi, tuai o va‘a, ma le telē o suiga o tau ona o fete‘ena‘iga i le va o le Iunaite Setete, Isaraelu ma Iran. Ua a‘afia ai le Vaitafe o Hormuz, o le auala lea e ui atu ai le tusa ma le 20 pasene o le suau‘u o le lalolagi, ma ua tuai pe taofia ai le to‘atele o va‘a uta.

Ua lapata‘i fo‘i nisi o tagata su‘esu‘e tau tamaoaiga, afai e umi aso o lenei fete‘ena‘iga, e ono oo le tau o le suau‘u i le US$200 i le paelo, ma ono si‘itia ai tau o suau‘u i Niu Sila i luga atu o le $4.00 i le lita. I le tulaga o lo‘o iai nei ma le televave o suiga o tau, e mafai ona toe si‘itia i le 50 sene i le $1.00 i le lita i se taimi lata mai. E lē mautinoa lea mea, ae o lo‘o iai le tulaga lamatia moni.

A tatou manatua fo‘i, e fa‘alagolago atoatoa Niu Sila i suau‘u ua uma ona fa‘amamāina mai fafo, o lea la e a‘afia sa‘o ai lava le tatou maketi i so‘o se fa‘aletonu i le lalolagi.

I lo‘u aafiaga i le fa‘agaioiina o nofoaga e fa‘atau ai suau‘u, o le tele o taimi na va‘aia ai le muta fa‘afuase‘i o nisi pamu i vaega o Aotearoa i le vaiaso ua te‘a, na mafua mai i le si‘itia fa‘afuase‘i o le mana‘oga i nisi nofoaga, ae lē o le leai o se suau‘u a le atunuu atoa.

A si‘itia le fa‘atau ona o le popolevale, e lē mafai i taimi uma e loli uta suau‘u ona toe fa‘atumu nofoaga ta‘itasi i le saoasaoa e tasi ma le mana‘oga. I aso masani, e lelei ma lelei le faiga o uta. Peita‘i, a oso fa‘afuase‘i le mana‘oga i se taimi pu‘upu‘u, e oo fo‘i i faiga lelei ona a‘afia.

O le mafua‘aga lea ua va‘aia ai nisi pitonuu ua muta pamu, e ui o lo‘o iai pea le suau‘u i tane i totonu o le atunuu ma o lo‘o aga‘i mai fo‘i isi uta fou.

I lo‘u manatu, o le mea tāua mo tagata Niu Sila i le taimi nei, o le fa‘atau pea i le tulaga masani ma aua le fa‘aputu po o le fa‘atau ona o le popolevale.

A amata ona fa‘atumu e tagata ni koneteina se tele, toe o i le pamu i aso uma e aunoa ma se mana‘oga moni, po o le fa‘atau i ni aofa‘iga e sili mamao atu nai lo le mea e manaʻomia, e vave ai ona muta pamu a o le‘i toe oo atu le uta e toe fa‘atumu. O lea amioga e mafai ona fa‘atupuina ai ni fa‘aletonu i le sapalai, e ui o lo‘o mautu pea le tulaga lautele o le atunuu.

E lē fesoasoani le fa‘atau ona o le popolevale. E na o le fa‘ateleina ai o le popole, fa‘atupu ai laina uumi, si‘itia ai tulaga lamatia, ma i nisi taimi e oo ai ina sasaa atu le ita i le aufaigaluega i luma, o ē e lē tatau ona avea ma taula‘iga o ia amioga.

I taimi fa‘apenei, o le fa‘atumauina o le fa‘aaogāina masani o suau‘u o se tiute fa‘atasi. Afai tatou te fa‘atau i le tulaga masani, e gafatia e le faiga. Afai tatou te fa‘aputu, tatou te fa‘atupuina ai le mamafa e lē tatau ona iai.

E ogaoga le tulaga o lo‘o tatou feagai ai, ma e lē masani i tausaga talu ai nei le tulaga ua si‘itia ai tau o suau‘u ona o mafua‘aga fa‘avaomalo ma fa‘aletagata. Peita‘i, i mea uma ua ou va‘ai i ai, i fafo ma totonu o nofoaga o lo‘o matou fa‘agaioia i Sisifo o Aukilani, e lē o le mea moni lea ua uma pe ua lata ona uma le suau‘u i Niu Sila.

O le mea moni, o lo‘o tatou lagona i pamu i le atunuu le aafiaga o se fa‘aletonu tele i le lalolagi. Afai e nofo filemu le mafaufau o tagata fa‘atau ma tumau le mata‘ituina e le malo ma le vaega o pisinisi, ou te talitonu e mafai e Aotearoa ona ui lelei atu i lenei vaitaimi.

About the author

Toleafoa Tuilimu Tuala Lotumali’i Leatuao Larry Tupa‘i Lavea

Toleafoa Lavea is the Owner Operator and Director of Aiga Energy Limited, operating Z Energy service stations across West Auckland. The views expressed in this article are shared in his personal capacity.

Primary role: Owner Operator/Director, Aiga Energy Limited & Z Retailer, West Auckland

Other roles:

• Ordained Anglican Priest, Archdeacon for Mission, Te Hui Amorangi o Te Tairāwhiti, Te Pihopitanga o Aotearoa
• SVSG Ambassador for Children’s Rights of Samoa
• Failautusi / Secretary, Mafutaga So’ofa’atasi O Faifefau Samoa I Aukilani (MSFS) Charitable Trust / Eucmenical Association of Ordained Samoan Clergy in Auckland Charitable Trust
• Chairperson, Mt Roskill Grammar School Board of Trustees
• Chairperson, Lalagaina Ole Alofa Charitable Trust
• President & Chairperson, Cue Sports Samoa Federation (CSSF) Incorporated Society
• Treasurer, Samoa Powerlifting Federation