Voting is under way in parliamentary elections in the Netherlands that polls suggest could again be won by the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders’s Freedom party (PVV), although there is little chance of it being part of the next government.
The PVV, which finished a shock first in the previous election and formed a four-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year before collapsing, is marginally ahead in the polls and forecast to return between 24 and 28 MPs to the 150-seat parliament.
However, the far-right party’s popularity has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats, and all major parties have ruled out going into government with Wilders, who pulled the plug on the outgoing coalition in June in a row over his radical anti-refugee plans.
At the end of a campaign dominated by migration, healthcare costs and the Netherland’s acute housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance (GL/PvdA), led by the former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, was lying a close second, projected to win between 22 and 26 seats.
Also forecast to do well was the liberal-progressive D66, prejected to increase its seat tally nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, and the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA), expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.
The outgoing cabinet members, who descended into infighting and achieved little – the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB) and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, some heavily.
Under the proportional Dutch system, 0.67% of the vote yields one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.
This high degree of fragmentation means no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – composed, in the three most recent governments, of four parties – for more than a century.
Wilders has said “democracy will be dead” in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government, but opponents and experts say first place does not guarantee government and any coalition with a majority is democratic.
While the outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may take months, analysts say that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by the centre-left or moderate right.
Polling stations, including in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm, with a usually reliable exit poll expected shortly afterwards.
After the vote, an informateur tests possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.
