The outcome of the Dutch election is still in the balance, but parties are already positioning themselves for the start of the coalition talks.

Under the Dutch proportional system no party ever wins enough seats for an outright majority, so there is a well-worn and sometimes lengthy process of negotiations to form the next government.

The first step is to appoint a scout – known as verkenner in Dutch – whose job is to canvas all 15 parties in parliament on their views of who should form the government, and whether they are prepared to be in it.

By convention the party with the most seats gets to appoint the scout, which is one reason the final result of the election is so crucial.

Amsterdam, which has counted 81% of the results, will declare its final total on Friday evening and the Caribbean islands still have to start counting. Around 90,000 mail-in ballots from overseas voters will also have to be counted in The Hague, a process which could take until Monday.

Geert Wilders has said he will block any attempt by D66 to start the process until the election result is “100%” clear, even though the remaining votes are likely to break in Rob Jetten’s favour.

Omtzigt controversy

The scout’s job is simply to report on their findings and say which potential coalitions have the most support among the parties.

This stage usually takes around two weeks so that the report can be submitted to the new parliament when it sits for the first time in mid-November.

It should be an uncontroversial process, but in recent years the scouting process has run into difficulties. In 2021 two scouts were appointed, Annemarie Jorritsma for the VVD and Kajsa Ollongren of D66.

But they had to quit when Ollongren inadvertently exposed her notes when she dashed to her limousine from a meeting after receiving notification that she had tested positive for coronavirus.

The blunder showed that Christian Democrat leader Wopke Hoekstra and VVD leader Mark Rutte had discussed the position of Pieter Omtzigt, then a CDA MP, suggesting he should be found a job outside parliament. Ultimately it led to Omtzigt quitting the party and founding Nieuw Sociaal Contract (NSC).

Two years later Geert Wilders’ first choice of scout, Gom van Strien, was forced to step down after it emerged he was being investigated for alleged fraud and bribery after a complaint was raised by the University of Utrecht, his former employer.

Behind closed doors

Once the scout’s report and the election results have been debated the next step is for parliament to appoint an informateur, whose job is to lead negotiations between potential coalition partners behind closed doors.

Traditionally the informateur reported to the monarch, but since the 2012 election the chair of parliament has taken on the role.

The talks leader will usually talk to the parties with the most realistic chance of forming a coalition and report back to parliament. Last time Ronald Plasterk, the former Labour (PvdA) home affairs minister appointed by Geert Wilders, said the right-wing combination of PVV, D66, NSC and BBB was the only feasible option.

Often during this period parties will change their stance on whether or not they are prepared to join a coalition. Dilan Yesilgöz said immediately after the last election that the VVD would not go back into government after losing 10 seats, but changed her mind after Plasterk published his report.

Programme for government

Pieter Omtzigt pulled out of the talks at the same time, but later rejoined the group and ultimately took NSC into a four-way coalition with PVV, VVD and BBB. The price was that all four party leaders agreed not to join the cabinet, meaning the non-partisan Dick Schoof, rather than Geert Wilders, became prime minister.

Once a coalition has been agreed – a process that can take months – the parties sit down to write a plan for government. These talks are usually headed by the largest party’s candidate for prime minister, but an exception was made in 2024 because of Schoof’s unusual role.

This time D66’s favoured coalition is a combination with VVD, the left-wing alliance GL-PvdA and the CDA. This coalition would have a healthy majority of 86 seats, but VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz said during the campaign she would not go into government with GL-PvdA.

Yesilgöz’s preferred option, an coalition with the hard-right JA21 instead of GL-PvdA would fall one seat short on the current numbers, but also be well short of a majority in the Senate. The centrist coalition would also not have a majority in the upper house.

Majority support

There is no requirement for the coalition parties to have a majority of seats in parliament, but the team of ministers and the coalition agreement have to be endorsed by MPs, so they must at least have the support of a majority.

The most recent example of a minority government was Mark Rutte’s first administration in 2010, a right-wing minority cabinet of VVD and CDA which signed a separate confidence and supply deal with Wilders’ PVV.

It meant the PVV, which Wilders had founded four years earlier, did not appoint ministers to the cabinet, but agreed to support it in parliament as long as it made concessions in key policy areas, chiefly immigration.

The cabinet collapsed after 18 months when Wilders refused to sign off a package of extra budget cuts prompted by the financial crisis.