Libya – Faisal Bou al-Raiqa is a national security researcher and specialist. He stated that ISIS faced a collapse in 2016. Former US President Barack Obama had discussed this collapse. After the group’s presence ended in that region, five new ISIS-affiliated groups emerged in Africa. The organization recently reappeared. This was in a video recording from a camp in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. In the video, ISIS announced its presence. Several African countries also face daily attacks.
Bou al-Raiqa elaborated in a statement to Libya Al-Hadath channel. He noted that the discussion includes Niger, Chad, Cameroon, eastern Uganda, Somalia, and northern Mozambique. These regions face significant security challenges from ISIS and Al-Qaeda. This is due to security fragility, instability, and political turmoil. He added that these areas have many ethnic and tribal demands. A pervasive sense of injustice is also present. This provides human resources for these organizations, he stated. It enables their leaders to mobilize and operate within the region.
Bou al-Raiqa highlighted Libya’s significant challenges. These include political division and the lack of a unified executive body. The security apparatus also suffers from decentralization. He believes this situation directly affects southern Libya. He added that armed forces in eastern and southern Libya seek to integrate military forces from the west. This aims to form what he called “the southern bloc.” The Fezzan region alone spans about 551,000 square kilometers. This area is roughly equivalent to Ukraine and France combined. This vastness necessitates modern technologies, including drone aviation. It also requires strengthening military intelligence. He emphasized establishing “intelligence diplomacy” with Sahel countries.
Bou al-Raiqa reported that some intelligence agencies might work to destabilize Libya. This is especially true in the south. He believes some agencies use armed groups. They also fuel a “soft division” in that region. He explained that the previous regime established “alert stations.” These were located in Chad, Niger, and Sudan. These three countries hosted between 18 and 20 advanced alert stations. Some were disguised as mosques, Sufi lodges, schools, and clinics. However, he said they were intelligence stations belonging to the external security apparatus. Their goal was to gather early information. They aimed to address threats in their regions before they reached Libya.
Bou al-Raiqa added that some neighboring countries have begun to address these threats. Moroccan monarch Mohammed VI recently met with the foreign ministers of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. They agreed to cooperate on security and intelligence training. Economic development was also a focus. They also agreed to confront these groups in their territories before they reach Morocco. He added that transnational groups use drugs and illegal immigration. These are funding sources to facilitate their movement. He affirmed that such video recordings are not mere propaganda. They indicate impending movement, coordination, and mobilization efforts.
Bou al-Raiqa noted these developments would not have occurred without laxity in the border triangle region. This is his assessment. There is a notable expansion of routes in the southeast. This benefits from weak government control. It also benefits from fragmented security coordination and the vast open desert area. He clarified that Libya’s geography is not isolated security-wise. For extremist organizations, Libya is not just a neighboring country. It serves as a connecting node. It links them with Southern Africa and North Africa via the Mediterranean Sea. Various analyses monitor these organizations from this perspective.
Bou al-Raiqa stressed that the organization’s self-declaration should not be superficially interpreted by the media. Instead, it should be treated as an alert requiring significant effort. This effort is needed from the internal security apparatus, armed forces, and military intelligence. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs also has an active role. It must arrange coordination mechanisms with relevant countries. This extends to Libyan embassies and consulates located there. He pointed out that the problem extends to Libyan embassies and consulates in these countries. He believes they do not operate with the required efficiency. This exacerbates the existing challenges.
Bou al-Raiqa emphasized that this issue directly concerns the United States. Specifically, it involves the US Africa Command (AFRICOM). He explained that Washington’s discussions with Libya primarily stem from a security approach. He added that AFRICOM was established to combat terrorism. Part of its intervention in Libya relates to security coordination and counter-terrorism. Energy issues come in second place.
