A forensic analysis by DataEd, led by data scientist Touba Marrie

As The Gambia gears up for its pivotal 2026 presidential election, a controversial survey by Gambia Participates, titled “Public Perceptions and Leadership Prospects Ahead of The 2026 Presidential Election,” is stirring debate and raising alarms. Marketed as a window into the nation’s political mood, the poll is instead a house of cards, built on methodological flaws, arithmetic errors, and interpretive overreach. A forensic analysis by DataEd, led by data scientist Touba Marrie, exposes the survey’s shortcomings, warning that its misleading conclusions could distort public perception and undermine the democratic process.

The stakes are high in The Gambia, a young democracy still healing from decades of authoritarian rule. With over 962,000 registered voters, the 2026 election promises to be a defining moment. Yet, Gambia Participates’ poll, based on a mere 1,556 respondents—just 0.16% of the electorate—claims to represent the nation’s will. This tiny sample, spread across 53 constituencies, averages just 29 respondents per constituency, far too small to capture the diverse views of tens of thousands in areas like Brikama, home to over 350,000 voters. “This isn’t a representative sample; it’s a statistical echo chamber,” Marrie asserts.

Compounding the issue is the poll’s questionable track record. Linked to CepRass, the survey’s organizers have a history of predictive failures. In the 2021 presidential election, CepRass underestimated President Adama Barrow’s victory margin by 22 percentage points. In the 2023 local elections, errors in key areas like Banjul exceeded 28 points. Such consistent inaccuracies cast doubt on the poll’s reliability for forecasting 2026 outcomes.

Arithmetic errors further erode trust. The survey’s reported percentages for perceived frontrunners fail to add up to 100%, with totals hitting 99% nationally and veering to 101% in regions like Brikama, Kerewan, and Banjul. “In data science, this is a cardinal sin,” Marrie notes. “If they can’t handle basic percentages, how can we trust their analysis of complex voter behavior?”

The respondent pool is equally problematic. With 63% male respondents against 37% female—despite women comprising half the population—and 39% unemployed and 34% with tertiary education, the sample skews toward urban, educated males. This imbalance distorts the poll’s findings, failing to reflect the broader electorate’s diversity. “It’s like asking only men at a family dinner for their opinion and calling it a consensus,” Marrie quips.

When recalculated using 2021 election turnout data from the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC), the poll’s own numbers tell a different story. Essa Faal emerges in a statistical tie with Barrow, while Mama Kandeh and Ousainou Darboe are neck-and-neck, separated by mere hundreds of votes. Most strikingly, the “Undecided” and “Other” categories dominate, representing 301,000 voters—far outstripping any single candidate. “The election is wide open,” Marrie emphasizes. “The so-called ‘frontrunner’ is a mirage.”

The survey’s biased question design exacerbates these issues. By focusing heavily on Barrow, Darboe, and Talib Bensouda, it sidelines other candidates like Yankuba Darboe, Essa Faal, Mama Kandeh, and Rohey Malick Lowe, creating a “priming effect” that artificially boosts certain names. “This doesn’t measure public opinion; it shapes it,” Marrie warns.

The poll’s claim to represent “public opinion” is perhaps its boldest misrepresentation. Labeling the views of 1,556 people as the nation’s voice creates a false sense of consensus. “This isn’t public opinion—it’s a handful of opinions,” Marrie says. Such distortions carry real risks: flawed polls can manipulate perceptions, skew campaign strategies, and demotivate voters by falsely portraying candidates as unelectable.

The survey’s foray into UDP leadership succession is equally flawed. It claims 44% favor Bensouda as Darboe’s heir, yet fails to disclose whether respondents are UDP members, whose votes alone count in party decisions. “It’s like asking neighbors who should run your family business—entertaining, but irrelevant,” Marrie notes.

In a democracy as fragile as The Gambia’s, flawed polls are not benign. They threaten to erode trust and muddy the electoral process. “True progress demands unassailable data and transparent methods,” Marrie insists. The 2026 election will hinge on governance, economics, and grassroots efforts—not a survey riddled with errors.