Reconcile to prosper, or perish.

The strained relationship between the peoples of Tigray and Eritrea is a result of political manipulation rather than historical animosity. Political elites on both sides have prioritized rivalry over the strong bonds of their communities, perpetuating a narrative of suspicion and conflict driven by ambition.

This elite-driven adversarial stance has actively harmed the interests of both populations, leading to suffering and division among communities that share a common language, faith, and heritage.

External powers and successive Ethiopian rulers have exploited this divide, causing widespread harm and undermining the unity of these closely connected communities.

After the destructive Tigray war (2020-2022), a delicate but crucial opportunity has emerged. This opportunity is not in the corridors of power but in the united determination of the people.

By collaborating at the grassroots level, communities can opt for cooperation and empathy instead of the conflict imposed on them from above. Through a purposeful grassroots people-to-people initiative (Tsimdo in Tigrinya), they can take back control of their collective fate and aim for a peaceful and prosperous tomorrow. Historical Rupture

For centuries, Tigray and Eritrea were closely connected, sharing a common language (Tigrinya), trade routes, culture, and Orthodox Christianity. This bond, rooted in the ancient Aksumite legacy, created a strong sense of shared identity and cooperation.

The rupture began in the late 19th century with Italy’s creation of Eritrea as a separate colony, imposing an artificial border that disrupted the interconnected social and cultural ties across the region.

Subsequent Ethiopian governments, from the imperial monarchy of Haile Selassie to the Marxist Derg regime, exacerbated this division. They used a divide-and-rule strategy, creating competition between Tigrayans and Eritreans for resources and influence within the Ethiopian state.

This manipulation fueled mutual mistrust and political rivalry, laying the groundwork for broader conflict.

Strategic Betrayal

The history of Tigrayan-Eritrean relations is marked by a tragic irony. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF) formed a strong alliance during the liberation struggle against the Derg regime. Their coordinated efforts resulted in a joint victory in 1991.

After liberation, the allies abandoned the unity they had forged in the trenches. The TPLF took control in Ethiopia, and the EPLF established Eritrea. Trust faded, suspicion grew, and shared goals gave way to nationalistic agendas, border disputes, and economic competition.

The brutal border war of 1998–2000 turned former brothers-in-arms into mortal enemies.

The failure to convert their hard-won military alliance into a lasting political and economic partnership was a profound strategic betrayal of their people’s shared sacrifice. This led to a damaging “no war, no peace” stalemate for two decades, hindering development, securitizing daily life, and enabling external actors to exploit regional instability.

This betrayal set the stage for the catastrophic war of 2020–2022.

Elite Abdication

The shift from liberation allies to bitter foes was not inevitable but a result of a deliberate failure of leadership. Political elites, like Isaias Afwerki in Asmara and the core of the TPLF, chose short-term political rivalry and nationalist rhetoric over the long-term well-being of their people.

They engaged in constant demonization of each other, portraying the other side as existential threats and preventing any meaningful dialogue.

Blinded by a manufactured rivalry and short-term interests, these elites failed to see the larger geopolitical chessboard. They became instruments of divide-and-rule strategies, empowering external actors and leading to catastrophic consequences.

This leadership failure replaced post-liberation peace with armed conflict, economic potential with devastation, and severed enduring social and cultural bonds—an abdication whose highest price would be paid by their civilians.

Devastating Culmination

The war in Tigray that started in November 2020 was the brutal result of years of hostility. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government, aiming to defeat the TPLF, officially asked Eritrean forces to participate in the conflict.

Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, seizing a chance for revenge and strategic gain, agreed. Eritrean soldiers carried out numerous atrocities, worsening a humanitarian crisis and causing instability in the region.

From the Tigrayan perspective, the war’s strategy was seen as having two chilling phases: first, the permanent military and political weakening of Tigray, followed by pressure on Eritrea for strategic concessions, like access to the port of Assab.

Tigray’s strong resistance changed the direction of the conflict, resulting in a stalemate and the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement in November 2022. This agreement disrupted the coalition’s intention for complete victory and exposed its internal rifts.

Following this, Abiy’s government has tried to incite fresh conflict between Tigray and Eritrea. Importantly, Tigray’s leaders have shown strategic restraint by refraining from retaliation, marking a significant departure from the pattern of elite-driven hostility and cyclic suffering.

Grassroots Imperative

The need for Tsimdo, a people’s pact, has emerged as a strategic response to the failures of the elite. This initiative aims to shift the responsibility for peace and reconciliation from disgraced political leaders to the people. It involves engaging civil society, elders, women’s groups, youth, scholars, religious figures, artists, and entrepreneurs in the process.

Tsimdo believes that sustainable peace should originate from the grassroots, rebuilt through trust, human connections, and cooperation.

Tsimdodoes not seek to bypass justice or ignore the past; rather, it seeks to prevent historical trauma from being weaponized to ignite future conflicts. The approach advocates for reconciliation built on shared truths, practical needs, and a vision of security and dignity for all.

The key message is that unity nurtures strength, while division leaves room for exploitation. A genuine Tsimdo poses a threat only to those who benefit from ongoing conflict and division, whether they are domestic autocrats or external powers seeking to maintain a fragmented region.

Powerful Backlash

The increase in people-to-people interactions has raised concerns among traditional adversaries, particularly Ethiopian centralist elites who historically maintained power by dividing the periphery. The history of collaboration between Tigrayans and Eritreans poses a challenge to the central government’s control through division.

Former Tigrayan leaders, now aligned with Addis Ababa, are strongly against Tsimdo. They selectively bring up past grievances from the 1980s, such as famine and suffering, while overlooking the important military partnership that helped overthrow the Derg regime.

Startlingly, they solely blame Eritrea for the 2020 conflict, absolving the Abiy government of any responsibility.

These leaders prioritize transactions over principles to keep Tigray isolated and dependent on the central power, contradicting TPLF’s history of alliances and hindering regional aspiration for self-determination. They also falsely claim Tsimdo is a secret pact by present leaders, ignoring its grassroots roots and community support.

Reclaiming Destiny

The enmity between Tigray and Eritrea is not an ancient blood feud but a constructed artifact. It was created by colonial cartographers, nurtured by Ethiopian rulers, and perpetuated by shortsighted elites.

Despite this, there is a deep-seated shared identity and strategic reality between the two peoples. Together, they form a powerful bloc in the Horn of Africa. Divided, they are vulnerable to exploitation and insecurity.

Tsimdo is a strategic move to reclaim this truth and dismantle the walls of hatred.

By rekindling their connection through trade, dialogue, and cultural exchange, they can rewrite their shared story from tragedy to solidarity. This difficult path is the only one that leads away from the abyss of cyclical violence and toward a future of cooperation, dignity, and shared prosperity—a destiny they must now seize for themselves.

The guns in Tigray may be mostly silent, but the war continues. What exists now is a pause shaped by exhaustion and imbalance. Until the causes of the war are addressed and the terms of peace enforced, silence will keep being mistaken for resolution, and suffering will continue in its shadow.

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While this commentary contains the author’s opinions, Ethiopia Insight will correct factual errors.

Main photo: Tigrayan and Eritrean border communities reunite through renewed people-to-people engagement. Source: social media

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