According to a preliminary estimate, Estonia’s gross domestic product grew by 2.1% in the second quarter of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier.

“The GDP flash estimate shows that the economic recovery continued in the second quarter at a pace similar to that recorded in the first,” Robert Müürsepp, the head of the national accounts service at Statistics Estonia, the country’s official statistics agency, said in a statement.

Compared with the first quarter of 2026, GDP grew by 0.4% after adjustment for seasonal and working-day effects.

Statistics Estonia will publish the official GDP figures for the second quarter on 31 August. However, the agency said the information already available provided a sufficient basis for assessing the overall direction of the economy.

The flash estimate of GDP, at constant prices and seasonally and working-day adjusted. Chart by Statistics Estonia.

“This is done using data such as trade indicators, transport and manufacturing statistics, tax declarations, energy production figures and price data. These are used to construct several models of the Estonian economy. This process, known as econometric modelling, seeks to link seasonal patterns and broader economic trends with indicators that describe the state of the economy,” Statistics Estonia said.

“However, the flash estimate assumes that economic trends and structures will remain stable. The preliminary data used in the models may also exclude certain major transactions which, given the small size of Estonia’s economy, could have a significant effect on the overall figures.”