Tanzania’s president looks on course to strengthen her grip on the country as it holds a general election on Wednesday against the backdrop of rapidly intensifying repression and the exclusion of opposition candidates.

Samia Suluhu Hassan, a former vice-president who took office after the death of her predecessor, John Magufuli, in 2021, has left nothing to chance for her first presidential and parliamentary electoral test.

Candidates from the two main opposition parties in the east African country have been disqualified, opposition gatherings have been banned and government critics have been abducted, killed or arrested.

Analysts say they expect voter apathy, possible unrest over the stifling of opposition voices, and the further entrenchment of Hassan and the ruling CCM party.

“Tanzania will never be the same after this election,” said Deus Valentine, the chief executive of the Center for Strategic Litigation, a non-profit organisation based in Dar es Salam, a commercial port city on Tanzania’s Indian Ocean coast. “We are either entering a completely new paradigm or level of impunity, or we are entering a completely new level of civil defiance. Something is going to give.”

Hassan started her tenure by undoing some of Magufuli’s authoritarian and repressive policies, including ending a ban on political rallies and making reconciliatory moves with the opposition. Along the way, she gained local and international approval.

But she later backtracked and her administration has been accused of overseeing a grim return to the repression of the past, dashing hopes of lasting change.

In June, after the reported disappearance and torture of two activists, Boniface Mwangi of Kenya and Agather Atuhaire of Uganda, UN experts called on the Tanzanian government to “immediately stop the enforced disappearance of political opponents, human rights defenders and journalists”.

The UN experts said more than 200 cases of enforced disappearance had been recorded in Tanzania since 2019.

A wave of abductions in the lead-up to this election has increased public anger against Hassan. One of those taken was Humphrey Polepole, a CCM insider who had resigned from his role as ambassador to Cuba and become a vocal critic of the government, CCM and Hassan’s leadership. His family said he was abducted by unknown individuals early this month.

In June, Tanzanian police dismissed claims of increasing abductions and disappearances, claiming some were staged. Hassan has in the past ordered an investigation into abduction reports but the findings have not been made public.

A crackdown on opposition parties has intensified in recent months. In April, Tundu Lissu, the vice-chair of the leading opposition party, Chadema, was arrested and charged with treason and cybercrime offences. His party, which has led calls for a boycott of the election unless electoral systems are reformed, was later disqualified from participating.

Last month Luhaga Mpina, the leader of ACT-Wazalendo, another opposition party, was also disqualified, meaning Hassan will contest only lesser-known candidates from minor parties.

ACT-Wazalendo supporters at a rally in Zanzibar on Sunday. Photograph: Reuters

Nicodemus Minde, a researcher with the Institute for Security Studies, said at a seminar organised by the institute: “The political landscape going into the election remains sharply polarised, with opposition leaders facing legal harassment and civic space that has been constrained.”

He said the absence of Chadema and ACT-Wazalendo from the ballot had made this election “arguably the least competitive” since the reintroduction of multiparty politics in 1992.

CCM and its predecessor TANU have ruled the country since independence in 1961, making it one of the longest-ruling political forces in Africa.

Hassan’s administration has pointed to plaudits for Tanzania’s economic growth and low inflation under her watch. She is campaigning on promises to focus on strengthening healthcare and education and provide economic empowerment to uplift lives and foster inclusive growth.

“In our current and forthcoming manifestos, we are focusing on the people,” Hassan said at a campaign rally in the eastern district of Temeke last week. “Our goal is to make sure that every Tanzanian has a chance to participate meaningfully in the nation’s economic growth.”

Schoolchildren walk past a billboard for Hassan in Arusha. Photograph: AP

Among those being allowed to run against CCM is Salum Mwalimu, a running mate of Lissu during the 2000 presidential election. He is running for the Chaumma party, which is made up of many Chadema defectors.

Mwalimu’s campaign promises include reforms to government systems, including delivering a new constitution. “Tanzanians should expect great change from our party, which is committed to transforming the country,” he said at the national electoral commission last month when he went to collect presidential nomination forms.

Observers say Hassan’s opponents lack the resources and name recognition to compete with the countrywide party machinery that CCM has built over the decades and benefited from to entrench its rule.

In the 2020 presidential election, Magufuli won with 84.4% of the vote and Lissu was second with 13.04%.

More than 37 million people are eligible to vote. The election encompasses separate votes for the president, MPs and local politicians.