SVT projection: centre-left opposition bloc leads by one seat
Drama.
The SVT’s much-awaited projection at 9.45pm local time, using the actual results from 10% of districts in their model, shows the two blocs effectively tied, with the opposition leading by just ONE SEAT in the new parliament.
Swedish public broadcaster SVT’s revised projection at 2145 local time showing near tie between two main blocs in the general election in Sweden Photograph: STV
Here are the revised figures:
Social Democratic Party (S) 27.6%
Moderates (M) 20.0%
Sweden Democrats (SD) 17.5%
Left Party (V) 8.2%
Centre Party (C) 7.1%
Christian Democrats (KD) 6.3%
Green Party (MP) 6.2%
Liberals (L) 5.5%
If confirmed, it would give a truly extraordinary result: the opposition bloc at 175 seats in the new parliament, and the incumbent government at 174.
It’s going to be a long night.
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Updated at 16.02 EDT
Key events
Some late ballots, primarily from overseas voters, are only expected to be counted on Wednesday.
And the number of late ballots could be higher than the current margin between the two parties.
Just saying.
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Amazingly, if the projection came true, it would not be the first time Sweden has seen a nail-biter of this scale.
In the 1973 general election, the two main political blocs literally tied at 175 seats each. That stalemate prompted parliament to change the number of available seats to an odd 349 ahead of the next election.
That proved to be a smart move, coming in handy just six years later, in 1979, when the centre-right bloc won by, erm, a single seat: 175 to 174.
They do love a bit of drama, Swedes, don’t they?
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Swedish public broadcaster SVT says their projection appears to show the difference between the two blocs is currently around 20,000 votes.
Incredible.
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With 57% of votes now counted, the opposition bloc leads by 0.3pp, 46.2% to 45.9% – and still 175 to 174 when it comes to seats.
The latest figures are as follows:
Social Democratic Party (S) 27.6%
Moderates (M) 19.8%
Sweden Democrats (SD) 17.7%
Left Party (V) 8.2%
Centre Party (C) 7.2%
Green Party (MP) 6.3%
Christian Democrats (KD) 6.2.%
Liberals (L) 5.4%
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Updated at 16.42 EDT
0.1pp difference between two bloc, SVT projection shows
The SVT projection shows 49.3% of the vote share going to the opposition bloc, with 49.2% for the governing bloc.
A difference of 0.1pp.
We are literally talking about the slimmest of margins here.
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Updated at 16.40 EDT
Nicholas Aylott of the Södertörn University writes in to comment on the new projected result for Kristersson’s Moderates.
“For the second consecutive election, the party of the PM looks set to have increased its vote, while allies lost out. Not what we usually expect.”
The Moderates saw 19.1% of the vote share in 2022; the latest SVT projection has them at 20.0%.
ShareJakub Krupa
Obviously, the SVT’s projection will keep being revised as more votes get counted, so expect more changes and dramas tonight.
This is not the final result, and things may – and no doubt will – change again.
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Updated at 16.07 EDT
Projection shows Kristersson’s Moderates broaden their advantage over far-right Sweden Democrats – snap analysis
Jakub Krupa
It’s worth noting the Moderates gaining a lot in the SVT’s projection, moving up from 18.1% to 20.0%, well ahead of the far-right Sweden Democrats in third, at 17.5%.
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Updated at 16.08 EDT
Jakub Krupa
I hate to be the “I told you so” guy, but… I told you so.
Exit polls in Sweden have, erm, a history (19:58, 20:33).
Get some snacks, we are in for a long night.
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SVT projection: centre-left opposition bloc leads by one seat
Drama.
The SVT’s much-awaited projection at 9.45pm local time, using the actual results from 10% of districts in their model, shows the two blocs effectively tied, with the opposition leading by just ONE SEAT in the new parliament.
Swedish public broadcaster SVT’s revised projection at 2145 local time showing near tie between two main blocs in the general election in Sweden Photograph: STV
Here are the revised figures:
Social Democratic Party (S) 27.6%
Moderates (M) 20.0%
Sweden Democrats (SD) 17.5%
Left Party (V) 8.2%
Centre Party (C) 7.1%
Christian Democrats (KD) 6.3%
Green Party (MP) 6.2%
Liberals (L) 5.5%
If confirmed, it would give a truly extraordinary result: the opposition bloc at 175 seats in the new parliament, and the incumbent government at 174.
It’s going to be a long night.
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Updated at 16.02 EDT
Ready for some drama?
The SVT’s first projection is here, and… gosh.
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Vote count under way in Sweden – in pictures
Voting envelopes are opened as the counting of votes takes place at the polling station at Kockums Fritid in Malmö. Photograph: Johan Nilsson/TT NEWS AGENCY/AFP/Getty ImagesVoting envelopes are opened as the counting of votes takes place in Sweden. Photograph: Johan Nilsson/TT NEWS AGENCY/AFP/Getty ImagesShare
Oh, turns out they need a bit more time.
Their numbers have slightly changed, but it’s based on very partial results, and they say they need a bit more to properly run their model.
So the wait continues.
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The SVT superprojection is coming any moment now.
Ready?
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A third of voters made up their mind last week, poll says
Digging into SVT/Valu poll data, as many as 64% of the people who voted for the Liberal party only decided to do so in the last week.
In sharp contrast, the equivalent number for the far-right Sweden Democrats stands at mere 18%.
Overall, one in three voters only made their mind up this week, the poll says.
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SVT exit poll
Here’s the SVT/Valu exit poll in a visual form.
The numbers show the projected vote share.
SVT/Valu exit poll, vote share percentages. Reading left to right, first four parties form the incumbent government’s bloc; the other four are in the opposition bloc.SVT/Valu projection at 2145 local time based on partial results vote share percentages. Reading left to right, first four parties form the incumbent government’s bloc; the other four are in the opposition bloc.Share
Updated at 16.31 EDT
