The German news magazine Der Spiegel has long had a taste for provocation. But one of its cover stories last month really captured people’s attention. It carried a picture of a young east German politician called Ulrich Siegmund. He looked pretty good, his chin covered with designer stubble, his hair combed into a neat quiff, his green eyes staring right into the camera, under the headline “Der gefährlichste Mann Deutschlands”: Germany’s most dangerous man.

You might think Siegmund would hate that Spiegel cover. Far from it. On the campaign trail in recent weeks he has been autographing copies: he even filmed himself signing one for his 800,000 TikTok followers. If the polls are correct, Siegmund could soon become the first far-right leader of a German state since Adolf Hitler’s time.

Support for his AfD party in his home state of Saxony-Anhalt has reached 42% – almost double the tally for the CDU, the party of Friedrich Merz, Germany’s beleaguered chancellor. This Sunday’s state elections could be one of the most important in postwar Germany. If the AfD wins in Saxony-Anhalt, other eastern states could follow suit later this month – raising fears that the party could ultimately win in the federal elections, too. Journalist John Kampfner explains the stakes, and how dangerous Siegmund really is, to Helen Pidd.

Photograph: Thilo Schmülgen/Reuters