After Storm Benjamin brought cold, windy, and rainy conditions to the Czech Republic in recent days, a surprising warming trend is emerging as November approaches. According to meteorologists, this warmer weather pattern could persist for at least two weeks, marking an unusual shift for the latter half of autumn.
The transformation is driven by a pressure pattern forming over Europe that’s expected to last until at least mid-November. A stable low-pressure system will dominate the North Atlantic, while high pressure settles over southeastern Europe. This configuration will strengthen westerly and southerly air flows across the region, drawing warmer air masses over Central Europe and bringing unexpectedly high temperatures for this time of year.
According to the long-range forecast from the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (ČHMÚ), the current week at the October-November transition will be warmer than average. Maximum daily temperatures will hover around 15°C, particularly in the second half of the week. The peak of this first warm spell is expected on November 1st, when some models suggest temperatures could approach 20°C—though areas with persistent morning fog or low cloud cover may remain cooler.
A cold front will briefly interrupt the pleasant conditions over the weekend, but models indicate the cooling won’t be long-lasting. The second week of November should also trend above average temperature-wise, especially in eastern areas. While the following two weeks may see temperatures closer to normal, forecasting accuracy drops significantly beyond one to two weeks. Nevertheless, models estimate that November as a whole will be warmer than average.
Despite the warmer temperatures, the weather will be anything but settled. Low-pressure systems over the Atlantic will send frequent frontal waves eastward, creating volatile conditions both in terms of temperature and precipitation. The ČHMÚ long-range outlook predicts that the coming month will see average precipitation levels, with weekly rainfall totals of 10-15mm. Rain won’t occur daily, but a prolonged dry spell is unlikely.
While long-range forecasts carry inherent uncertainty, model ensembles show considerable agreement on the weather development in coming weeks. If their predictions prove accurate, Central Europe can expect a changeable but predominantly warm end to the meteorological autumn season.
