Russian forces are attempting to seize the frontline city of Kostiantynivka, a critical hub in the “fortress belt” of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, sparking conflicting claims over its control.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters late on 3 July that Russian forces had fully captured the city, though he provided no evidence. The Kremlin also released an undated video showing Russian President Vladimir Putin thanking soldiers and stating that the capture of Kostiantynivka carries “major strategic importance.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected the claims the following day, calling them “another Russian lie.” Mocking the announcement on social media, Zelensky invited Putin to meet him in Kostiantynivka for peace talks.
“The reality is that he will never cross the front line — reality is very different from what Putin says,” Zelensky said.
Kostiantynivka, which had a population of 66,000 before the February 2022 invasion, has been reduced to a wasteland. Barely 2,000 residents remain in a city devastated by artillery, drone strikes, and Russian guided glide bombs. Open-source intelligence analysts, Ukrainian officials, and Western observers warn that small pockets of Russian troops have penetrated the western, southern, and eastern neighborhoods, putting the city at risk of falling completely before the end of the summer.
The situation deteriorated through 2025 after Russian forces completed the capture of nearby Toretsk and crossed the Siverskyi Donets – Donbas canal, which had served as a natural defensive line. Intense fighting elsewhere forced Ukrainian commanders to divert elite units west to Dobropillια, leaving Kostiantynivka with lower priority. Russian drone units, specifically the Rubicon detachment, severely disrupted Ukrainian supply lines using fiber-optic guided FPV drones. By winter, soldiers reported that virtually no vehicles or unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) could enter or leave the city without being targeted.
“The situation around Kostiantynivka is developing towards the worst possible scenario,” the Ukrainian-linked open-source research group Deep State reported last month, noting that Russian forces had reached the outskirts from all sides.
Juha Kukkola, a Finnish lieutenant colonel teaching at the National Defence University in Helsinki, told Radio Free Europe that Russian tactics have mirrored previous urban battles.
“The Russians managed throughout the spring to disrupt the supply and rotation of Ukrainian units, exhaust the Ukrainians with drones, glide bombs, and indirect fire, and finally break through their lines in June,” Kukkola said. He estimated that the defending forces might only hold out for a few weeks.
Ukrainian military analyst Ivan Stupak told Reuters that small Russian assault groups of one or two men have been gradually infiltrating the urban fabric, occupying ruined buildings and waiting for reinforcements. Stupak said a soldier fighting in the city admitted to him that “the city is slipping from our hands much faster than we ever imagined.”
Retired Ukrainian military colonel Serhiy Hrabskyi noted that Moscow recently deployed an additional 11,000 troops solely for the advance on the city. He suggested Ukrainian forces would attempt to pin the Russians down inside Kostiantynivka to inflict maximum casualties, similar to the sieges of Pokrovsk and Avdiivka. “It will remain a grey zone for a very long time,” Hrabskyi said.
The battle comes amid broader strategic shifts. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated in a TSN interview that Russian forces are preparing a potential new offensive further north from the Bryansk region to stretch Ukrainian reserves.
Deep State analysts warned that the fall of Kostiantynivka would open the gateway to the Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk defensive complex, which has formed the core of free Donetsk since 2014. Despite the pressure, Ukrainian forces continue to resist, contrasting their defensive battles in the Donbas with successful long-range drone campaigns targeting oil refineries in Moscow, Crimea, and St Petersburg.
